The bearish primary degree count (on log scale) still satisfies more factors (i.e. volume trends, sentiment, proportionality, distance, time) than the bullish cycle degree count (on arithmetic scale) and I consider it the higher probability scenario.
Log scale shows that the rally to new all-time highs is not as big as it seems. Arithmetic scale shows how steep the trajectory has been, most comparable to the bubble rally to all-time highs previously. What followed was a two year decline which is inline with my big picture outlook that BTCUSD is working its way through a cycle degree expanding flat correction. A similar two year decline to at least the 200 level would satisfy this count perfectly.
At intermediate or minor degree a fourth wave is unfolding and we should expect a fifth wave rally which may be taking off as I type this. Once this high is in place, the next major move is a correction. Cycle degree wave IV or primary degree wave ((C)) of cycle II.
Log scale shows that the rally to new all-time highs is not as big as it seems. Arithmetic scale shows how steep the trajectory has been, most comparable to the bubble rally to all-time highs previously. What followed was a two year decline which is inline with my big picture outlook that BTCUSD is working its way through a cycle degree expanding flat correction. A similar two year decline to at least the 200 level would satisfy this count perfectly.
At intermediate or minor degree a fourth wave is unfolding and we should expect a fifth wave rally which may be taking off as I type this. Once this high is in place, the next major move is a correction. Cycle degree wave IV or primary degree wave ((C)) of cycle II.
Again, volume does not support this. Sentiment is optimistic and/or complacent.