(A) is a , and we've been (roughly) forming a small one since the uptrend-support-turned-resistance (red uptrend line) which we first touched on apr 13. It should complete right at the long term down (greenish one again) around 8.5k (haven't tested it since March 3rd, expect heavy resistance), retrace to .5 fib around 7.5k, then move up back up towards greenish , big green candle on breakthrough that grows to 11.1 as hope and optimism return. Close longs and take profits around 11.1k, switch back to short until 5k (heavy resistance to watch at 9.2k, might close longs there based on momentum leading up to it).
(B) since BTC rarely has the same reaction twice in a row, it's highly likely we respond differently to this resistance than we did on the previous from 11.7k to 6.5k that we encountered on April 9th . Meaning once we get there, we break through to the upside with momentum with no re-test of support.
(C) resistance at 8.5k was the local top and we're now headed back down. evidence- down trend still valid (shorting safer than longing), shorts now cleared out from ATH , big green candle was mostly just momentum from massive short squeeze. Evidence to the contrary- 2014 btc pattern had a bull trap at roughly this phase of the cycle, and we're right up against that infamous down , breaking it would bring in a flood of optimism and leveraged longs. Huge profit opportunity for MM, and would help facilitate the necessary emotions to carry us towards the final capitulation.
Strategy- keep longs from 6.5k open, pull up stops to .618 fib at 7250. Track for any violations to adjust strategy. Leverage longs with tight stops at .5 fib 7.5k in case of re-test (highly likely).
Sentiment- I find that using the fib to measure any uptrend gives a great sentiment indicator. .236-super , lots of hope and optimism, .382-healthier, most common for alt/btc bull runs, .5 usually happens if we've only had small corrections in an uptrend for an extended period of time, .5 of longer move up wipes late entries to clear stops and reduces leverage before trend continuation (very healthy for trend), .618 is more rare in crypto, indicates a slower moving trend. Anything below .618 means trend is invalid. Also, ATR flipped to highly
Since we left the at 6.9k we've only had .236 fib retracements, both representing the high level of momentum from so many liquidated shorts and that we're overdue for a .5 to clear latecomers. This has brought out the permabulls we haven't heard from in months. Might want to put stops right under .618 in case MM does a wick to clear stops below .5 fib.
Based on this, I closed my longs. Will try to re-long at the .5 fib still in hopes of continuing to trade the above trade plan. May short from here down.