This idea pertains to futures contracts and how they may or may not be a leading indicator in a given quarter and merely correlative.
Hypothesis: The week following the opening of a new quarterly contract signals sentiment for the quarter and therefore price direction.
(Null hypothesis: The week following the opening of a new quarterly contract has no effect on price direction. No way to truly test this without a control of some kind.)
I think the bullish reversal in June was quashed due to the blockchain size FUD, ie an issue with the fundamentals of Bitcoin. Had that not occurred, price would have likely broke the $300 ceiling much sooner than the end of October. Currently, the debate continues to be an open question with no clear resolution.
Because of the limited data stored on TradingView, I only have 4 data points, but I believe OKC quarterly contracts only began around August 2014 anyway.
Some scenarios to consider
Decision week has a:
Higher Close = bullish continuation for the quarter
Flat Close = reversal, such as what occurred in September 2015
Lower Close = unlikely to happen if we are truly in a bull market, but would also signal a reversal
There is also a giant cup which has formed on the since the last high at $540, the handle should form throughout the week and then finish higher, likely around settlement. The target would be ~$580 to complete that pattern, likely between 12/18-12/25.
Get the futures vs spot indicator here pastebin.com/BjwKyeuc
Hypothesis: The week following the opening of a new quarterly contract signals sentiment for the quarter and therefore price direction.
(Null hypothesis: The week following the opening of a new quarterly contract has no effect on price direction. No way to truly test this without a control of some kind.)
I think the bullish reversal in June was quashed due to the blockchain size FUD, ie an issue with the fundamentals of Bitcoin. Had that not occurred, price would have likely broke the $300 ceiling much sooner than the end of October. Currently, the debate continues to be an open question with no clear resolution.
Because of the limited data stored on TradingView, I only have 4 data points, but I believe OKC quarterly contracts only began around August 2014 anyway.
Some scenarios to consider
Decision week has a:
Higher Close = bullish continuation for the quarter
Flat Close = reversal, such as what occurred in September 2015
Lower Close = unlikely to happen if we are truly in a bull market, but would also signal a reversal
There is also a giant cup which has formed on the since the last high at $540, the handle should form throughout the week and then finish higher, likely around settlement. The target would be ~$580 to complete that pattern, likely between 12/18-12/25.
Get the futures vs spot indicator here pastebin.com/BjwKyeuc
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