Bitcoin (BTC) technical and fundamental analysis

2 thg 11, 2023

📈 Technical analysis BTC/USDT
The price of Bitcoin has made a breakout from the Pennant pattern formed during the trading session. Currently, we are witnessing a retest of its upper boundary. Typically, this pattern is worked out to the height of its flagpole, in this case, in the range of 40,000 to 41,000. However, there are few factors on higher timeframes that could hinder a swift completion of this pattern:

1. There hasn't been a retest of the global trendline for trend confirmation.

2. There are significant gaps in the Imbalance zone on the weekly chart at horizontal volume levels that need to be filled through trading.

3. There hasn't been a correction after the recent upward momentum.

These factors increase the likelihood of Bitcoin's price retracing to at least the 0.38 Fibonacci retracement level before resuming its upward movement.
But, this scenario can be invalidated if the price manages to break the resistance level at 36,000 with a strong upward move and consolidates above it. News regarding the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF for funds such as GrayScale or BlackRock could potentially contribute to this. In that case, we would expect the full completion of the Wyckoff pattern up to 40,000.


📉 Bitcoin market global analysis

On the daily logarithmic chart, the price of BTC has once again tested the global upward trendline but was unable to surpass it. The RSI indicator is in the overbought zone, indicating the need for a local corrective movement. After the correction, we expect another test of the trendline in the range of 38,000 to 40,000. If, during this retest, the price cannot establish itself above the trendline, we would anticipate the completion of a Bearish Wedge pattern and a global correction of the entire upward movement since the beginning of the year.

However, news regarding the approval of a Bitcoin spot ETF could provide another powerful upward momentum. If this happens in the near future, the correction might be postponed once again.




💠 Analysis of zones and levels for making trading decisions

The Fear and Greed Index is in the greed zone at 72.
The total market capitalization of the cryptocurrency market has increased to 1,257 billion dollars, and the Bitcoin dominance index has fallen to 53.79.
Based on the analysis of significant order blocks in the order books, the demand and supply zones are situated at the following levels:
🟢 Demand Zone: 24,000 - 30,000
🔴 Supply Zone: 36,000 - 40,000

Levels for entering long positions:
32,500 - a potential retest of the trendline
30,000 - a psychological support level
28,000 - a retest of the 200-week moving average and the 0.78 Fibonacci retracement level

Levels for entering short positions:
36,000-38,000 - a possible retest of the trendline on the logarithmic chart
40,000 - a psychological resistance level




📊 Fundamental analysis

Since 79% of Bitcoin holders are currently in profit, the overall sentiment in the cryptocurrency market remains positive.

Today, the SEC is conducting a closed-door meeting to address regulatory claims and dispute resolutions regarding the conversion of Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (GBTC) into a spot Bitcoin ETF. A court has ordered the regulator to review its decision regarding the GBTC ETF, emphasizing the similarities between the Grayscale proposal and Bitcoin futures ETFs.

Yesterday, the US Federal Reserve kept the key interest rate unchanged 5.5. While it seems that the markets have already priced in this news, it could have far-reaching effects on the price dynamics of both cryptocurrencies and stock markets.

The S&P 500, which represents the largest US companies, responded with an impulsive rise to this news and is currently testing the dynamic resistance of EMA50. Meanwhile, the US Dollar Index (DXY) continues to move sideways.

🌐 Upcoming Events in the Global Economy

The following dates are expected to bring increased volatility in both the stock and cryptocurrency markets:

➤ November 3, 15:30 - Unemployment rate data for October.

➤ November 14, 15:30 - Core CPI (MoM) for October.

➤ December 13, 2023, 21:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision.

➤ January 31, 2024, 21:00 - New Fed Interest Rate Decision.




📈 Is it possible to predict sudden Bitcoin price action?

I would like to share the forecast of the latest Bitcoin rise by our AI, which not only indicates the direction, but also builds the trajectory of further price movement: