Secondly, this post is neutral because even though Bitcoin -2.07% may correct for weeks, I don't think we will be hitting any crazy lows during that process.
So if you followed my last post of Bitcoin -2.07% , you know that we are on its ASS and this chart may make sense to you. So if you've REALLY been following me, you know that Bitcoin -2.07% has always come into contact with the 100 day . I will update another chart to show how that is possible. But Bitcoin -2.07% may have to correct for weeks in order for that to happen, and this thread will cover that whole process and all of the possibilities that can come with it.
NEVER forget about the big picture guys. So many analyst get caught up in the now they forget to zoom out and see whats happening right in front of them. It's that easy to do and I see it happen ALL the time. Like I said before, that was a YEAR long bull run. I NEEDS to take its time on this correction. Trust me. If Bitcoin -2.07% rushes too fast to it's 5th wave, then it will NOT be a pretty correction. So I'm actually happy to have recognized this and I think it's a great thing! The next update will show why I think we can correct for weeks.
But for now, what we're getting is a Triple Correction. And the reason why it's a triple is that I think we will get TWO breaks between 5-3-5 corrective patterns. This is where things start to get advanced . And If you're having trouble following don't worry. You'll get it over time.
But what is also possible is that we CONTINUE to get MANY breaks between each 5-3-5 pattern and we correct for MONTHS! But, we're not there yet. It can break any of these trends and get impulse waves up and we have to respect that option.
So right now in the blue, we are forming a . The white line is from the very top to the last motive X wave. I think that resistance is more important, and we are likely to find resistance there for our motive B wave. The bottom white line is our closest level of support, I think that we can find support there, but you can also argue that that support line is weak, and it has the potential of being broken through. Right? Why? Because any correction that starts with 5 corrective waves in an A corrective wave, means that it will be a correction that slopes down. I think EVENTUALLY we will break the white RESISTANCE line, BUT that does not mean I think those are impulse waves going up to our next all time high.
I was studying this morning, and it helped me come to this conclusion. THAT, is the importance of continuing to study as a trader. Studying will never do you any harm. So yup, that's what I have for now. And like usual, this is likely to change over time. So follow if you would like updates! I update ALL the time. Best!
Also, in your trading sessions, play some music man. Get the vibes going. You'll get in a rhythm and start nailing it LOL.
I think Bitcoin is old enough to the point where we can start finding useful information in the weekly chart. THIS is not forgetting about the big picture. But what this means is that we are starting to find stability in the pricing of Bitcoin, where we can have a nice range of where it will be in the future. I'm telling you, those wall street guys are smart. Look at the futures prices for Bitcoin during the summer. You think that is just random? LOL no its not man.
Alright, so lets look at some things here. Our weekly MACD is not leveled yet, if we crossover on the weekly MACD then we are able to correct from April through the summer. This is perfectly normal, and perfectly healthy. No worries here. On the RSI I have leveled off each one of our support zones. If we break one, we are likely headed to the next. What we WANT, is to stay in the green zone. If we exit that green zone, then it is NOT a good sign.
So that's where we are. I think Bitcoin will reach a nice little bear run for weeks to months from now on. Can Bitcoin's market cap be surpassed by then? Absolutely. But guys, I think a bear market is coming this summer with the bigger players. Ethereum, Litecoin, Ripple and a few others are ALL approaching their 5th wave. We can definitely make some money on those now. But the likelyhood of those have GREAT 2018s are slim. I'm REALLY focused on altcoins. This is really good for the crypto market. If Bitcoin corrects for this long, I think we can see some really good altcoin's create more diversity in this market and we can REALLY start to move forward as an asset class.
Futures contracts aren't just coming out now for a reason. Once they see the growth rate begin to slow down, we may see some for Litecoin, Ethereum and Ripple in the future. I've never been so excited for a bear market before.
This is why I never sell into fear guys. LOOK. We got a BULLISH DIVERGENCE. LOL, even after all that, Bitcoin is STILL bullish. I really think we can target that B wave with the white resistance on a move upwards before Bitcoin falls again.
Bitcoin Head and Shoulders formation is in play! (Uh oh!)
So guys, we're just going to focus on what's likely to happen in the next week or so. we've completely abandoned that blue wedge that we spotted before. But we are finding support along this white line that is creating the triangle for us. But check out that SHOULDER tho!!
So, in my opinion we are likely to hit that target along the white resistance line (or around it, depending on how long it takes Bitcoin to reach it). Could you all agree with that? Well guess what, if we do that, we are likely to touch the bottom of the support line again. What does that mean? It means that we complete the neckline of the Head and Shoulders.
So here are the parts that can confirm a target of at least around that red box. First, completing the neckline is a trend reversal signal. Secondly, a guideline of alternation (not actually a rule, even though i said it on the picture) is that if one part of the correction is a flat ABC, the other part is likely to be a sharp ABC. Well, the first part was already a flat ABC. So that means this next part should be a sharp ABC. It completely 100% makes sense to me, and i think this is a scenario that is likely to happen. But it doesn't mean it WILL happen
Remember on the last post when I took out the average drop below the 100 EMA? And it came to 13.9%? The brown-orange line is where the 100 day EMA is now, and that box covers the total of the 13.9%. Where does that lead us? Right to the 50% fib level. Not looking so good.
So, this is what I'm going to do. In the next few days I'm going to see how the alt coins react. The ones that grow more slowly, I am likely to remove allocation from them back to Bitcoin as Bitcoin approaches the top resistance. Once I'm confident that all of my altcoins are done with reaching whatever peaks they can, I'm actually going to take the risk of putting full allocation into Bitcoin. If Bitcoin breaks that resistance, then it's all good! Right?
But if Bitcoin resists that line and shows pull back, then I'm likely to cash out in my good ol' friend Tether. Do I recommend doing this? No, but I'm gaming the system right now. I'm looking for opportunity of growth while avoiding opportunity of loss. It will never hurt to NOT lose money right? That's my view point on it. I don't mind doing that. Having the Tether position (as long as I'm not hacked hahaha) will allow me to come back whenever I please to take advantage of low alt prices if I so get that opportunity. That's when I go full Trader Mode.
If that opportunity doesn't come, then I just MIGHT miss out on a little return. But I like my risk to reward here. For example (numbers are not actual numbers to consider), say Bitcoin hits 16,000 and I go out. I tell myself that I'm targeting re-entry at 10,000, but if it hits 17,000 then I'm back in. That's 1,000 of lost opportunity, and 6,000 of saving. That's a 6:1 Risk to Reward of a market exit, and I like that.
Remember, we're just gliding off of the 55 Day EMA right now. I expect us to trade under that for a while. And All of these things would support that cause. Welp guys. Crap.
I just wok up to a blood bath LOL. We are going LOWER. This is nuts.
BUT, this actually makes sense. Right now, if you look at the Daily chart, the supports make more sense, and you see that we are actually channeling. I still think we are going to get the WXYXZ pattern, but I'm just showing the WXY.
So for the guideline of alternation, if the first part is a flat correction, the next one is likely to be a sharp one. So here we see the first correction was a flat ABC, and this second one is showing to be a sharp ABC. We're likely to touch around $10,000 here soon. Our .5 fib level is there, our support line is there, and we just stuck the wick through the 100 day EMA. Congrats guys, we finally touched it. That was a really sarcastic congrats if you didn't get it. But I think we'll bounce upwards and hit that white resistance line. That's when I'll try to target my next exit of the market.
Just to show what I'm thinking is likely to happen after this. I think it's possible we can hit 8k, but not likely in my opinion.
Here is what I am seeing on a smaller timeframe. I THINK we may have another drop here. I'm not quite sure. It is possible that all we have seen is one wave, rather than 3. It is also possible that we have seen all 5 waves rather than 3. So this is where we just trust our indicators and let the market make the decisions. Right now I'm seeing some bullish signs in the MACD and oversold areas in the Stoch RSI. We can go lower, but I think we may have hit the bottom OR at least near it on that drop. Stay calm guys, all I see are cheap alts.
BOOOOM!! I've been waiting to say boom for a while now.
Alright you all. We pushed wayyy back above my daily support line and we are likely to close above it. This is a GREAT sign. It's looking good so far and I believe we can continue an ABCDE pattern back up to our X target. The rule of alternation is falling into place. Our first ABC was sharp. The next one was FLAT, AND if we don't break this resistance, and correct again, then the next one will likely be FLAT again, where 10k is likely to be our floor/support line.
After that, can Bitcoin continue to correct? Absolutely, so we'll play it by ear. We have to keep adapting to whatever situation Bitcoin puts us in. I found it hilarious that someone pointed out that people are losing their minds because Bitcoin is the same price that it was at the beginning of last month!! Haha! This is why I never panic guys. The market will run its course and we will continue to have these crazy corrections until the market scales up (to around 5 Trillion dollars or more).
Personally what I need to do in times like this is to manage my risk much better. As a trader, with bear markets like this I should be having much more cash in my portfolio. I'm thinking about 50% allocation in cash for scalping and small trades. This why (as a trader) I can really take advantage of times like this, secure profits, and have money that does not take a loss. For you investors, I would recommend a 20% allocation in Bitcoin (for quick trades to cash OR other altcoins) and a 15-25% allocation in cash to give yourself an advantage during these correction periods. I added on too much risk by placing too much allocation IN the market during this correctional period as it didn't follow the course that I expected. I prepared poorly for that event to happen sooner than I expected and I was hit pretty hard by it. But its okay! It's a learning experience. And we CANNOT lose our cool, because the market always comes back. Guys Bitcoin was literally $1000 a year ago. We're sitting at $10,000 right now. That's some pretty damn good growth to me.
We're on Bitcoin's ass. Let's continue to help each other and throw ideas and fundamentals around that will help us come to better conclusions! Good luck to you all!
The total market cycle appears to be on its wave 4 consolidation. Remember, wave 3 is usually the most intense and explosive one. That's why we were getting those crazy jumps. I believe that now, when I start making my new posts, they are going to be much more conservative, and we are likely to not see those crazy 1000% jumps in 1 month anymore. Can they still happen? Yes, but I'm not AS bullish as I was before.