Techmology

BTC to trade sideways or break down?

POLONIEX:BTCUSDT   Bitcoin / Tether USD
Hello Traders and Investors alike! Welcome and thank you for checking out my TA!

We can see my TA from yesterday experienced a complete lack of volume resulting in a break down. As I noted then, should we not find the volume to push through with the help of passing the inverted head and shoulders neck line, a break down to my 1st TA levels was highly likely! That still holds more or less true but with some new observations to draw from.

In two hour view, we're into a corrective wave cycle at the time of this writing in what I believe to be the B wave now. We can see a potential bull flag or what could also easily be a bearish pennant . No matter really as I believe the nature of that signal is overall pretty irrelevant. The real signal here is where and how we'll move from the completion of the C wave.

I want to leave the possibility open of the C wave completing at the $8,000 support line and entering an impulse wave trading largely sideways to retest the overall bear market trend line seen in light blue. This would be a very positive outlook for the crypto market in general. That said, I'm not at all convinced at this time that's going to happen with the lack luster volume we're seen of late. Furthermore, that would suggest a mere retrace to the .236 area which happens to be just below another potential head and shoulders formation with the neck line marked in white. I think it's far more likely we'll hit that break down line and be sling shotted to retest the $8k support line and ultimately aiming for the .382 retrace and the $7,800 support line below. This support line has become galvanized as of late and has held strong for 2 retests so far. Should if it holds again, we can expect to head sideways to test the trend from the .236 or .382 fib line areas.

In the case we continue to lose steam and break through the .382 fib and fail the retest at $7,800 support, this would suggest a complete reversal of the present trend and send us rocketing down in a very significant way. Considering we're pivoting to an impulse wave cycle, I expect to make short work of that support and tumble through what would complete a double top formation. Now for those of you who don't know, the approximate projected corrective nature of a double top is much the same as that of a Head and Shoulders pattern. ( https://www.investopedia.com/university/charts/charts4.asp?ad=dirN&qo=investopediaSiteSearch&qsrc=0&o=40186 ) This would suggest a similar outcome to my 1st TA of around $6,600 but maybe not quite that far as that's only a suggestion from the formation approximated calculation. All that said, this would leave a clear path for a retrace to either the .618 or .786 fib lines without much need for imagination.

Now, I'd like to note, these targets could happen on either side of the middle light blue trend line . In fact, I expect the side of that line will determine the speed and the volatility of the retrace and quite possibly the lowest target also. What I mean there is if we head straight down and break the present trend support line, we're more likely to see the .786 fib line revisit. In the case we remain between the far right light blue trend line and the middle line, I expect we may only make it as far as the .618 fib and corresponding support at $7,200 before we need to reassess what the market has to tell us at that time.

In conclusion, we have to see where we fall with the corrective wave completion and watch carefully for indication of direction from that point on. I believe it really depends on how fatigued the majority of holding investors are at this point in the game and their willingness to continue holding strong in the face of another potential portfolio evisceration. Will they pull out to buy the bottom this time or will they hold strong and continue fighting the good fight? We'll find out soon enough! I hope you enjoy and I welcome your constructive critique of my TA. Happy trading everyone!
Of course, Futures contract concluded today. Why wouldn't it break resistance now......
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Good TA, market is standing on the edge, but for sure soon we will see which destination he will choose!
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Techmology valerakamyshkin
@valerakamyshkin, Thanks for the kind words! and yes, I eagerly await the signals needed to short the market or swing trade a bit while we wait for the next rally.
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