I post today a BTCUSDT TA. I have studied the ALTs move yesterday, they are clearly non-phasic with BTC ( BTC goes up, alt goes down; BTC goes down, alts goes up).
Here's my in-head analysis :
Fist step was to see on macro chart if an uptrend was possibly forming :
BTC touched 3 time 11kish support. Strong support tested and not broken usually annouce a forming. Switching to BTC 1D, looking at 1D, forming. We see the trend pointing up toward the signal. Low chance to re-test a support, more chance to go upward. Lower band interaction+++. said not oversold not overbought.
Micro analysis (current chart) :
We see a nice first impulse with strong support with. Every indicators consolidate and give an indication of more impulses to come. the famous 1-5 impulse wave everyone have already seen about. Our wave 3 target show a stop near 20K, the last ATH , which is very logical since this is a resistance. I found the wave 3 target with the indicator on the BTC 1D chart
Option A) We see a compressive (higher lows, lower highs) corrective triangle, a classic one with an ABCDE projected point. Impulse #3 after point E.
Option B) I putted an WXY. If the pattern extend overtime we must be aware about a possible WXY horizontal pattern. But this one is unlikely to appear since we have higher lows and lower highs. So why i putted it on the chart ? Because on the 1d chart, BTC may take a little bit more time to consolidate before the next impulse.
This current chart have been made according to my macro TA. I have seen Hae Jin works, i fully agree with his projection and my work resume to the same target.
-But Simon, why you say 'arbitrary' in your title, was is this ?
Arbitrary is where someone will trade, for example, ALTs coin to profit of a BTC run. By moving out liquidity from ALTs and going massively into BTC , we see non-phasic ALTs/BTC market where BTC gain value and ALTs suffer proportionnal loss value (sometime greater loss). You and me can do this by trading XXX/BTC.
This hypothesis is very probable since yersterday shown clear symptoms of it (massive drop for ALT for a 1.5k gain with BTC ). I think the next BTC bull run will drive the ALTts down . AS for now, ALTs are clearly non-phasic with BTC .
For example : X/Y and X=1, Y=1 so 1/1. Non phasic market is where (1-0.25)0.75/1.25(1+0.25). X will suffer a -25% loss and Y will gain 25%. but if you compare the ratio, Y win alot more than just 25%. It (Y) gains almost 40% compared to X. This is where arbitrary become very interesting.
Non-phasic market contains infinity of information for your next move. The coins that will suffer heavy will reflect that they have low holder dominance.