BTC Trend Analysis

Before BTC fell, I mentioned that it would fall in the analysis I published in another language.
According to the analysis of the Shark pattern, I think that the targets have not been set yet.
When we look at the now, we can see what has changed after the shark 2 pattern.

When we look at the present, we see elliot waves and corrections.
If you are one of those who think that the location of the 3rd wave is wrong, I respect your comment.
If elliot 3rd wave lasts longer or is stronger than expected, it will shorten wave 5th. Comment with that in mind.
If wave 5 moves beyond that trendline, it is called a throw over. When there are weak 5th waves like this, sharp decreases can be experienced.


An example from 2019. The 3rd wave seems to have weakened the 5th wave here as well. The downtrend is just as fast and destructive. This is not our topic. I had to go into detail because some friends wanted me to explain.
If anyone wants more information, I can add academic article suggestions to the comments.
Whether this is a smooth elliot wave or not, let's continue to examine with current patterns and indicator data.
These two patterns may have compatible Fibonacci levels.
1. model C leg ended at 1.13 and leg B is out of measurement limits. In the 2. model, the b leg is much higher than 0.618 and again outside the measurement limits.

Taking these measurements as a reference, there is only a shark pattern that I know of, where the b legs are out of the measurement and the C legs are at the levels of 1.13 and 0.886.
If I'm not mistaken and the measurements are correct, the 0.618 resistance of pattern 1 would correspond to the 1.13 level of pattern 2.
if this happens, we can think of it as pattern shark 2. In this case, we can expect a decrease.

Although not certain , shark patterns have always been accompanied by another harmonic pattern.
In summary, I see an M after every W or a W after every M in general. I think these two models complement each other.
After this, it is likely that there will be a decline instead of a new pattern.
I wrote a support resistance script. When you look at it in sync with the sine waves, you feel there is a missing picture. This has nothing to do with technical analysis.
A feeling that anyone familiar with reading graphs can have too.
Let's look at the patterns that may appear when we try to simulate a pattern on this image.
This is our 1st simulation
In this case, the price will regress to 32K levels and go to 59K from there.
I never think there will be this second scenario, but I still want to share it.
and this is scenario 3

Finally, I want to share what I actually think;
These are money indicators.
When the red line cross under the green line prices have always risen.
According to the Aroon indicator, sellers are still weak and buyers don't care much right now. If the aroon down continues to go up and the aroon up turns up, that means it's trending.( In the monthly time frame)

Maybe I'm not seeing logically by thinking emotionally. But Tesla shares are up right now. And according to the analysis I shared last , I think Tesla shares are about to pull back down. Tesla and BTC are inversely proportional. So they arbitrage.
BTC will experience another minor correction. I think ? I believe that after this retracement , the real trend that everyone has been waiting for will begin.
This is a chart drawn by monthly time period. A downward harmonic pattern does not match my measurements.
I can only match the data with a crab pattern you see in this graph.(indicator and candles)
Maybe my emotional expectation subconsciously guided me like this. But at least the indicator data can support this expectation.
There's usually a pullback every weekend. I guess next week everything will be clear. I do not think that names like Elon musk and michael saylor will allow the large amount of bitcoin in their hands to become garbage.

Note: This is not investment advice.