BTC potential bearish reversals
Now that my last short position on BTC has failed this is the levels I'm looking for new short positions. Bitcoin is macro bearish. No bulls allowed below 19k.
#BTCSUB10K :D
#BTCSUB10K :D
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Bears are silently watching your correction corn. Don't fail it.
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Not yet
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Comment: What happens if it comes to test the breakout level at this point? Channel is broken again. And "again" is very dangerous.
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TOTAL chart. Rising wedges happen when liquidity is not taken from the lows. You want to see time spent at the lows. Then aggressive breakout.
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They sold the strength. Idk...
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I'm waiting for something more convincing.
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ETH is already there. Short term range retests is generally bullshit.
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You can say ETH didn't even care about this previous resistance. I doubt it will care about the trendline.
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And NASDAQ. Do bulls exist?
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DXY
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Just a deviation or what?
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Coming back to box is the alarm signal.
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Let's simplify it as much as possible:
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Short open. Not financial advice. Absolutely not.
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I just decided to take higher risk. Basically moved my 1x entry to here at 17.550.
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If it goes in the box like I anticipate right now, I'll just put a stop loss in profit just above the box.
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Be safe. Shits looking hot.
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Don't get it wrong. I love Bitcoin. I'll be a buyer at my targets. Whatever the charts say.
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If BTC is gonna crash, you will see it. You'll see constant pressure for a long time. Then a parabolic move. Probably multiple. One of them will lead to the crash. That's how it works when it's not a black swan event.
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Last line of defense for the box is 17.100 in my view. Daily close below is the alarm.
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Literally looks like a hammer hit.
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I don't have a BNB position but I'm also focused on BNB right now. 260 is a very critical level. I think this might be an indicator about the market's short term move.
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Bounce or just weakness? I'd say weakness.
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Here is another redistribution for you. $COIN:
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Aggressive candle
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Imagine. just fantasy :D I always exercise for various options.
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Imagine giving almost nothing to 10k buyers for weeks. That would be crazyyy.
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btw we have a little wick test to my box on the hourly.
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This is also an important level. I believe we'll see fake breakout from the box.
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Bitcoin is still "ok" compared to US markets btw. If US closes bad and BTC keep being "ok" we can see some action on weekend. Bearish most likely.
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Don't think like it's all stock market's fault. Bitcoin was super bearish. BTC.D was low and bullish. It is still low. This was coming. Big guys are not interested in 99% of altcoins. Expect more pain.
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You think 70 BTC.D is impossible? I don't.
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You have to look at BNB.
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At some point we should see something like this. Bears need fuel.
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Here is the bullish possibility although I think it's unlikely. It'd be really cool technically.
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I revisited this idea just because I'm starting to see strong bearish sentiment :D I have to say this. This always raises a question mark for me.
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For me to take this possibility seriously, first I have to see it holding above 17.400. Then I'll close my short and maybe get a small long depending on the PA. Then I can scale the position up above 19k. I mean just a what if plan. I'm trying to be ready for every possibility.
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I think that scenario would correlate with BNB PA. If Binance can somehow restore confidence in the market, it might be a good reason to go up. I'm watchin $190 level on BNB closely.
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Now that I explained this possibility and my plan I wanna repeat that I'm still strongly bearish. TA gives me multiple alarm signals on many charts.
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Clearest view of the range imo. We should consider this range as redistribution FOR NOW. Expect a test. Don't try to buy the bottom. I would say.
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I'm talking about this similarity for a while. I think it's been almost a month lol. Chart didn't prove me wrong yet. Have a look:
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4h candles are showing weakness again. Can't wait to see the next move.
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ETH is even weaker.
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2 things have no test. The channel and the range high.
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On the other hand, this weekly outlook is crazy. Big hammer. Bear flag-ish look.
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I'm just gonna drop this pic here to check later. This might be our bounce signal. It can confirm the market said "Nope" on this timeframe.
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It's a common pattern 1-2-3-jebait-confirm-send. But it's low timeframe anyway. Not very confident.
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BTC wanted it but NASDAQ idk :D
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BTC.D though. Still going very well.
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Another interesting possibility is showing weakness for a long time instead of some retests. Confuse traders and boom.
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Look at these 2 little circles on ETH. That's what I'm talking about. Weak weak weak and boom.
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Lots of good bearish setups on alts. More I look more I lose faith in bulls.
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Bull market started :P Volumed sell staircase up.
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Wow it really did hahaha
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Operation stop hunt probably.
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Is it done? I'm looking for a stop-loss level. Because finally it's building something.
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Have an alert on this upper level.
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DXY is about to lose an important level because of JPY. NASDAQ might form a local bottom around here. Interesting environment. It's like crash or bounce. One bad news can break all the supports but chance of a bounce is raising.
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News about BOJ just means they are starting fight with inflation too. It should be a risk-off news.
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Possibly :D
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What if
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You know what? If it makes a 4h close that invalidates this I'm out.
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The sharpness of this downward move was bothering me. Now this corrective(possibly) move will probably make me more bearish.
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It wasn't really an important level to bounce. No time spent at the lows. Volume isn't interesting. I can count more reasons for bears to be comfortable about this.
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BTC and ETH is acting like TRX on ltf. If you know how manipulative that shit is :D
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Speaking of correction.. Look at the beauty of fibonacci. Bouncing here wasn't random.
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So who is playing the game? I think bears.
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You can think like whales are addicted to this shit :D Resistances are for breaking and then faking :D
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I would like to remind this to anyone who think BTC is down too much. The result of the 30k breakdown was 17.600. Directly, if you look at June price action. Now the price is consolidating slightly below that. After 6 months. The norm is 17.500 and we are there atm.
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Now many people wait for 16.500 for a short-term trade. And they are right. If this is a true launch area, that's good confirmation level for bulls. But the amount of time spent on a resistance is a problem. You can think like 16.500 will have to carry all this weight that I circled in the picture.
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Sweet little chop.
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Damn, market was waiting for an update from me.
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Bye bye, Coinbase. Probably.
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I was thinking it needs retests / long time of consolidation for the last few days. Not anymore. I think a never ending sell pressure can start any moment. If bears are serious.
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I find these 2 curves interesting. Hopefully we will test one soon :D
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An interesting channel that I'm following:
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ETH 2% 1m candle. At least you can tell this is not retail. Low liquidity bearish market is really scary.
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Feels like market is fighting with a big whale who is trying to build a down trend :D
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This is becoming a meme.
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This is where bears should show up I think. Or we are going up. For 0.5 at least (~17.300).
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I think ETH chart is more interesting than BTC chart rn.
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I closed my BTC short and increased my older ETH short size. And I set a stop loss around 1250. This is actually an exit plan for me. Merged my 2 big shorts and set a tight stop loss.
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I don't like shorting BTC anyway. I think ETH and some other alts are better for short if you work enough on their PA. And if you think market is going down of course.
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A small parabolic trend but idk. It's down because stocks are down.
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It's hard to tell what's crypto waiting for. NASDAQ really weak. VIX is making a parabolic trend. Crypto bears are still not great at creating momentum.
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I took some profit and removed my stop order. I don't wanna get stopped out with a stupid wick to be honest. I'll decide manually.
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This is a good job from bears but you know what resistances are for. They are for breaking and faking. So that's a question mark.
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This is what I wanna see for better confidence:
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I see people are still so ready to feel bullish again. Bitcoin is consolidating below a major level. This fact should set your bias. Nothing else.
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Swapping BTC short with ETH short was probably a good decision. That someone is still selling ETH.
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BTC.D
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This was a curve I drew to 10k target by connecting 3 high closes since August. Look at the fight. I don't think it's coincidence.
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I like ETH short more because this is a clearer structure. Clean 0.5 correction + redistribution: