2 scenarios for Bitcoin till the end of Feb 2022

After breaking down a new weak uptrend the price dropped and also broke MA200 on the 4H chart. Those and other signs are pointing to the strong bearish scenario. The question is - how deep will we fall?
The next stop most likely will be 37000, with a small chance to bounce back to 39000-40000. Thus I'm bearish now.
P.S. But be careful, when on the market too many bears or bulls for a long time, there could be happen bear/bull traps.

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My bearish scenario played out even better than I expected - the price dropped to 34300 versus 37000 I supposed