Commercial Bank of Australia..

15 thg 3, 2023

Everyone seems concerned by a run on the banks of late. Then the question came, is this an isolated event? Is this a US banking crisis? Or is there evidence for contagion?

The answer was surprising. Silicon Valley Bank had indeed printed a strong bearish divergence with sell signal back in December 2021. Are other banks doing similar?

First contender is the Commonwealth Bank of Australia. On the above 2-week chart a double top bearish divergence is confirmed. Not dissimilar to SVB. Two obvious areas of support exist. The strongest at $80 and the first support at $86. The $80 level of support has existed for 30 years (see monthly chart below). Will the 30 year support level hold? There is a high probability.

The short term the chart is incredibly bullish with a probable move to $115. After that, be short.

Ww


Monthly chart


Daily chart