Technical: This pair has found confluent support extending back to 2014, and in addition, price action is sitting on a longterm downtrend line and 50% of previous major trough to peak but resting just below January 2015 open. This largely crosses with the support of the lowest median line of a pitchfork formation. If projections are correct, should see some form of resistance at the 62% however the major hurdle would more likely be a zone in which the lower median line, medium term down trend line and 79% are. If any Elliot wave theorist would be able to pick me up on any mistakes I have made that would be appreciated. In addition, inverse head and shoulders pattern has been identified on a H4 time frame with divergence on CCI.
Fundamental: With recent tensions between US and North Korea, money has been flowing into risk off assets. This has propped up JPY to a degree that it is arguable overbought. Risk sentiment can flip very quickly but this could see money flow to another risk off currency. CHF is largely another haven for global capital which could see this pair rally.
Projected long position is shown but if a more intra-day approach suits, a piercing of January 2015 open with a pull back to that level would justify opening a position to the upside should it rally from their with a stop under that support.
This is not investment advice, consider if this fits your risk appetite. Never risk what you arent prepared to lose.
Schwifty trading!
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Pattern failed. Idea Invalid.