One effort, and then decline three and exhaust

The dow has tripled in the last 10 years, and it's been a remarkable performance for the last 100 years.

However, in this decade, we have seen three periods of significant stagflation, ranging from 15 to 18 percent over 500 to 600 trading days. It is now in its third stagflation cycle, and this time it is the longest adjustment in terms of size and duration. To use an old Chinese saying, the so-called "three times of decline and exhaustion", does the dow still have a new high? Could this be a repeat of the 2008 crash?

At present, the moving average trend is still intact, formed a good long position; But the macd has been in a downward trend for the past 12 months, a divergence that continues to weigh heavily on bulls. The key question now is whether the uptrend line can form a support, this trend line is currently around $24,000, if adjusted here, can support the index no longer fall, bulls will welcome a respite. Otherwise, the 2008 crash is no joke.

For the current economic situation, although trump all think that it's still very good expectations, and the fed's rate cut is only just beginning, in theory, policy space is very big, but there is a problem, the global economic integration is an indisputable fact that the United States with the tariff barriers to change this state, in the end is law and economic development. If all countries to follow, the world recession, the United States alone, look at the past 100 years, the rapid growth in the United States benefit from globalization, without the world market, the United States to become the global high-end suppliers, and although it is the world's main consumer markets in the United States, it is based on supply and demand, otherwise would have like 200 years ago in China, is coveted from all over the world.

So if trump continues to be conservative and USES tariff barriers to kill everyone, then we all know that he is killing a thousand people.