The Dow Jones Industrials DJ has a very interesting long term chart,
particularly the +20 year chart. Between 1998 and 2009, the Dow Jones
traded in a sideways pattern, while before and after that period
it was in a secular bull market. It is not really fair to say that
the stock market is in a bubble right now, although, on a shorter
timeframe, a bubble view could be visible.
Most investors have the perception that the 2000 and 2007 tops were followed by bear markets. While that is
correct from a tactical perspective it is much more ‘nuanced’ from a secular perspective.
That is why it is always recommended to look at long term charts. The Dow Jones Industrials is no exception,
its long term chart shows a different picture than the shorter term charts.
Obviously, stock markets will correct sooner or later. Our point of view is
that the current upleg will be stopped in 2017, but the correction is likely
particularly the +20 year chart. Between 1998 and 2009, the Dow Jones
traded in a sideways pattern, while before and after that period
it was in a secular bull market. It is not really fair to say that
the stock market is in a bubble right now, although, on a shorter
timeframe, a bubble view could be visible.
Most investors have the perception that the 2000 and 2007 tops were followed by bear markets. While that is
correct from a tactical perspective it is much more ‘nuanced’ from a secular perspective.
That is why it is always recommended to look at long term charts. The Dow Jones Industrials is no exception,
its long term chart shows a different picture than the shorter term charts.
Obviously, stock markets will correct sooner or later. Our point of view is
that the current upleg will be stopped in 2017, but the correction is likely
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Forecast : Dow 30
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