DJT - Social truth, or financial truth?

5 thg 10

This is a difficult case to analyze, as it depends so much on one individual. The hard facts can easily be overthrown by single events, and so DJT might be highly volatile. If one should try to look at the hard facts, such as financials and technical, it is a hard sell. Barchart.com rates it as a Strong Sell, Tradingview has it as a Sell with only 3 of 22 indicators saying buy. Zacks doesn’t even rate it.

Looking at the chart, it is definitely a short. Price has been dropping since May, and the trend is clearly down. Price has gone up the last week or so, and some indicators (MACD, RSI) have turned up. Price has reached the top of the down channel, and a push down could be expected as I believe the rise lately is not sustainable. Because this is a stock that is solely dependent on one person, there could be irregular and unexpected moves in the stock. Said person might also win an election next month, and this might affect the stock. So be aware of non-stock related events.

Judging on financials and price behavior, this stock is a sell. I will not set a target, as the price is at a low and the level it was at for a very long time up until January this year. It remains to be seen if this level holds, if price keeps following the channel we are looking at a price around $8. I believe this is not at all outrageous, given the financial state of the company, but it is uncharted territory so I will not set it as a target.

Disclaimer: I am not a US citizen. I have no political inclinations, my analysis is purely based on charts and financial statements.

11 thg 10

Ghi chú

DJT has had a few good days, but nothing has changed financially. Volume has been higher than usual recently, RSI is getting into oversold, but MACD is showing signs of a rise. This is not unusual with stocks that attract attention beyond financials. I belive this to be a false bounce, and the bounce has produced targets. Target 1 for me is the support around $15.50, and taget 2 is the low of $11.75.

23 thg 10

Ghi chú

The initial trade idea has of course failed, but I will hold on to my short even still. Earnings is Nov 3 and should Trump start seeing some headwind in the campaign, price could start dropping fast.

29 thg 10

Giao dịch được đóng thủ công

Well, this escalated quickly. All bets are off, all laws of physics and any other science (pun intended) are out the window. DJT currently has a market cap of over 110B with revenue last quarter of some 800K... TTM revenue is 3.43M. We are seeing a frenzy, a huge short squeeze, and a crowd of followers that do not care about financial reality. Clearly I closed my short, but be ready for a potential crash like never before. What goes up on air alone, must come down. Even in this case. It is basic physics...