Which scenario now for DXY ? (weekly timeframe) - part 2

24 thg 9, 2024

This is the second scenario that could still play out on the dollar index. If you've seen part 1 of this analysis, you will know that I have mentioned the fact that a solid direction has not yet been taken nor been confirmed. In this second scenario, opposite to scenario 1, the dollar will continue to be weak, therefore it will continue it's road to the downside. weakness.
Technically speaking, if this is the scenario that will play out, then the flat in the middle (marked by the yellow lines) is a contracting flat. We like this scenario less, and we think this is the least likely scenario, because inside the alleged (contracting) flat, the b wave is the one which is the least corrective, which doesn't really "work" for a b wave. At the moment, we cannot entirely rule out this scenario, however, because we are in fact moving under (maybe consolidating under) what would be the trend line if that really is a contracting flat.
However, considering we are "getting tired" of going lower (pls see 4hr timeframe analysis), considering we the likelyhood of scenario number 1 and considering we are at a low price, we will start looking for buys on the dollar (so sells on eurusd for instance).