ES/SPY Weekend Look (Dec 13-17)

Here is the weekend look at the ES for Dec 13-17. Last week the ES held the 55sma and bounce off the neutral zone. Price pushed through the resistance zone I identified in last week's post effortlessly and is now trading only 20 points below the ATH on Sunday night. Targets going into next week are the ATH and then the first red box on my chart. If price breaks the ATH watch for failure at the 1.13 fib extension. When breakouts fail it often happens at that level. Above the 1.13 I will look for continuation to the 1.618 fib extension. The ES/SPY is currently the strongest of the indexes. If for whatever reason the ES starts to roll over look for the ema cloud and then the neutral zone to provide support.

Although we are used to the broader indexes pulling back and then going on to make new highs effortlessly we should be prepared for some sideways to down price movement in the coming months. The new FED tapering narrative does not favour stocks and much depends on how the bond market reacts. If yields remain subdued I would expect a continuation of the rally in growth stocks. If the yield starts to move higher again I would expect growth to roll over once more and money move into financials. The most watch stock is likely to be AAPL. Many expect a continuation higher after the strong move last week. Obviously AAPL has the power to move the ES all by it self so keep an eye on it as it may become the first 3 trillion dollar company this week.
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Week ahead...


Tuesday... PPI
Wednesday...Retail Sales & FOMC Rate decision
Thursday... Jobless claims


Bull notes...

Price is in the bull zone.
VIX back to 18
Santa Rally
Growth stocks perking up
New leadership may emerge

Bear notes...

FOMC surprise
Very few stocks leading current rally.
Taper tantrum

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ES has held up through the volatility nicely relative to the other indexes. Price pulled back to top of neutral and bounced. Once price gets this close to an ATH there is almost always a tap of the high again. Whether it can break through or not it to be determined. The red boxes above should act as targets as well as resistance if price breaks out.