ES/SPY Weekend Look (Oct 11-15)

Last week the ES rallied back into the neutral zone where it stalled out just below the 50sma. Going into next week price will need to clear the neutral, the 50 sma and the downward trend line to resume the uptrend. The green zones below still represent the areas of support. If the down trend resumes watch the greens for potential bounces or reversals. It is possible that price may oscillate between 4250 and 4450 until a new catalyst is found. Until one of those two levels is breached I would recommend sticking with short term trades.
The 10year yield, inflation and China continue to be risks. Most trades will be looking ahead to 3rd quarter earnings season.

Of note:

Wed ... Fed minutes
Thur... Jobless claims and Crude inventory
Friday Retail sales.

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ES made an early run back up yesterday morning but was rejected at the downward trend line as the short term traders took early profits. As I mentioned in the NQ chart update. We are in a waiting mode for a new catalyst. Tomorrow we have some big banks starting to report earning and the FOMC minutes. Most traders will want to wait for that info to come out before committing one way or the other.

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Of note.. broke the downward trend line.