"The Big Picture" aka the "Tom Lee thesis" - E mini futures

13 thg 9, 2022

After today's CPI it looks like we're in a last C leg down before a much larger B wave starts. This would be a very surprising and unexpected rally to about 4500+, but I can see a lot of beaten down stocks finally get their substantial bounce from this larger B wave rally.

I was watching Tom Lee talking about "buy the dips in the 2nd half of the year", and if the pattern is correct I believe he's right. Of course, the B wave would ultimately be followed by the most vicious C wave we've seen in our lifetimes, so I'm not sure if he would consider selling at that point, but I agree with his statement that "dips should be bought in the fall".

This dip I believe gets to 3750 before a major rally up. It will be dramatic, fast, and painful and that's exactly the reason to buy it. If we get under 3600 this idea is likely invalid. I will update from time to time. Good luck!

13 thg 9, 2022

Ghi chú

minor bounces will get sold into, don't expect much of a bounce in this final C leg down - they are not going to allow longs out or shorts in - that's why it will get intense towards the end of the move - a mini capitulation will end it.

13 thg 9, 2022

Ghi chú

we're close to strong support, put some money in my pocket in case of a bounce larger than I expect.