Corona times, pleanty of bearishness, but markets are irrational and they ignore all the unemployment and super bearish index/indicator numbers worldwide and IMF statements about depression. FED seems to be pushing up here and there as well. My view is long for the mid term - couple of weeks /months - with following reasoning:
- We tested 50 EMA from below, went above, tested the downside again, downside rejected. Now 50 EMA seems support and there is plenty of upside.
- Same reasoning is valid, taking 0.5 Fibonacci level as comparison.
- We broke through the rising wedge, and it is testing the lower trendline from the bottom. To me it feels like a false breakout and we will continue the uptrend.
- On hourly graph, we can clearly see higher low’s and we are testing upside on new high’s.
- RSI in clear uptrend and not fatigued yet. We will face values in 70 territory soon imo.
If we are able to break through the high from yesterday, I see the following levels possible:
- First level around 2900-2930. 100 EMA and Fibonacci 0.618 level. Also, this level seems to be around the lower trendline we have been testing lately.
- Second level, if bullish sentiment holds, 3130 levels, which is 0.786 Fibonacci levels and the resistance/high from early march.
When these levels are reached, we could face a lot of downside if corona bearishness takes over.
Take in mind however, that the bullish trend from last month, combined with FED buying power and Trump’s very-desired re-election, could lead to fully irrational buying to new highs.
Long, till very clear bearish signals are given to the market.
- We tested 50 EMA from below, went above, tested the downside again, downside rejected. Now 50 EMA seems support and there is plenty of upside.
- Same reasoning is valid, taking 0.5 Fibonacci level as comparison.
- We broke through the rising wedge, and it is testing the lower trendline from the bottom. To me it feels like a false breakout and we will continue the uptrend.
- On hourly graph, we can clearly see higher low’s and we are testing upside on new high’s.
- RSI in clear uptrend and not fatigued yet. We will face values in 70 territory soon imo.
If we are able to break through the high from yesterday, I see the following levels possible:
- First level around 2900-2930. 100 EMA and Fibonacci 0.618 level. Also, this level seems to be around the lower trendline we have been testing lately.
- Second level, if bullish sentiment holds, 3130 levels, which is 0.786 Fibonacci levels and the resistance/high from early march.
When these levels are reached, we could face a lot of downside if corona bearishness takes over.
Take in mind however, that the bullish trend from last month, combined with FED buying power and Trump’s very-desired re-election, could lead to fully irrational buying to new highs.
Long, till very clear bearish signals are given to the market.
My guess would be we hover around the 2900 level next 2 days to find out if market accepts this level - I think we will - and then move on to the 3100 level: the double top of early march and the 0.786 retracement level.
If 2900 is not accepted, we might fall back to 2800 levels - the 0.5 retracement - and retest the upside again.
If FED comes with very positive news or statements today, I think we will not hover and start heading towards 3000 in the net days.