ES/SPY 4500/450 within striking distance

ES is closing in on that 4500 level I have mention many times. Its been a magnate for price for a while now IMO, but the question is what will happen if it gets there. If it continues to grind higher like it has been any reaction to the zone is likely to play out slowly. If however price decides to make a euphoric spike into the 4500 zone then we may see a significant reaction. No plans to short but I have been showing caution with new positions and trimming older ones. The market is sloppy right now and hard to swing trade. Things are best suited for longer term investing where one builds positions slowly or short term trades closing the day flat. Check out my past post for reference.

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The question I have now is.. Have we come close enough to the red zone and the market is setting up for a deeper correction? Many traders de-risking there portfolios right now. Given the price action any attempt at a double top here into the red zone will be an opportunity to thin out some positions. Negatives are starting to stack up. Potential tapering, war, inflation, variants, debt.

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Price tapped my 1.618 measurement and dropped back after retail sales. This zone is now resistance until its not. Yesterday's rally may have been caused by shorts covering into this report. Time to be very cautious. If price rallies again and pushes through this zone easily then the zone will become support. Until that happens I will remain conservative.