Evening Update: Today Muddied the Waters a Bit
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In this morning’s update I wrote that I was expecting 3904-3882 area. 3904 would be the minimum for completion...as wave 3 extended beyond the 1.618% vs ending at 1.382%. When patterns extend, they complete at areas beyond the ideal conclusion areas. Therefore the 1.786% is where I would expect a standard impulse to end...but since wave 3 extended I would anticipate the 2.0 to the area of the 2.618 to be tagged. But the 1.786% at the 3904 area should at the very least get tagged.
Today our wave 4 (as I am counting it) was drawn out. It makes perfect sense since the wave 2 was NOT. We got that drawn out price action today. I could have chosen to wait for the next low to go long... but I decided to start a short position. The reason I made this decision was we extended downward...therefore the retrace in wave 4 should tag areas to reflect wave 3 extended. Normally a wave 4 will target the 1.382 to 1.0 depending on how the impulse is shaping out. We did not hit the 1.0 today, but I honestly wasn’t expecting we would, given the downward extensions. However we came close...which is not what I would expect.
I am still counting this as a wave 4 retrace of wave “a” down...but I have to also be mindful now that price entered the “b” wave target area...this could be the "b" wave...and we could make a bee-line to the 3700 area. So, in my opinion, whether this is a wave 4 retrace, shorting is not the worst idea...even though we’re only expecting OML. If it’s a “b” wave then price could drop deeper than 3882 from here. Right now, I’m short 4 ES contracts at an average price of 3957.25. I am watching tonight for how the pattern develops...but overall, it is my opinion it's just a wave 4 and OML gets it done. But I want to be cautious with longs down in that area. My opinion on it being still just a wave 4 of c of a is the cash market.
Cash market appears slightly clearer than the ES with OML to go. Let’s see what tomorrow brings and if the 3904-3882 area gets some action tomorrow. Above the 3885 area and I start to think this is no longer a 4 and we're in a "b" wave.
Best to all,
Chris
Today our wave 4 (as I am counting it) was drawn out. It makes perfect sense since the wave 2 was NOT. We got that drawn out price action today. I could have chosen to wait for the next low to go long... but I decided to start a short position. The reason I made this decision was we extended downward...therefore the retrace in wave 4 should tag areas to reflect wave 3 extended. Normally a wave 4 will target the 1.382 to 1.0 depending on how the impulse is shaping out. We did not hit the 1.0 today, but I honestly wasn’t expecting we would, given the downward extensions. However we came close...which is not what I would expect.
I am still counting this as a wave 4 retrace of wave “a” down...but I have to also be mindful now that price entered the “b” wave target area...this could be the "b" wave...and we could make a bee-line to the 3700 area. So, in my opinion, whether this is a wave 4 retrace, shorting is not the worst idea...even though we’re only expecting OML. If it’s a “b” wave then price could drop deeper than 3882 from here. Right now, I’m short 4 ES contracts at an average price of 3957.25. I am watching tonight for how the pattern develops...but overall, it is my opinion it's just a wave 4 and OML gets it done. But I want to be cautious with longs down in that area. My opinion on it being still just a wave 4 of c of a is the cash market.
Cash market appears slightly clearer than the ES with OML to go. Let’s see what tomorrow brings and if the 3904-3882 area gets some action tomorrow. Above the 3885 area and I start to think this is no longer a 4 and we're in a "b" wave.
Best to all,
Chris
Bình luận
I apologize the above says above 3885 I start to think this is a b wave. I meant 3985.Giao dịch đang hoạt động
Added to short 3 ES at 3981 for a total of 7 contracts at an average price of 3975.25
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