1. ETH ETF priced in at 10% on Polymarket. ETHBTC hits record lows (I buy)
2. ETH ETF odds revised, leading to a large 1b OI increase and a 20% rise. Polymarket odds are between 50-60% here, (as Polymarket rules are unclear, and Polymarket deadline is May 31st.)
3. ETHBTC rallies further as people sell BTC for ETH
4. ETH ETF decision does not occur before the market close, causing a quick wick down. (I take profit on my ETH longs here)
5. The ETF is approved, leading to a small spike, followed by a selloff as news traders and traders like myself fully close the trade.
I believe ETH will get 20% of the BTC flows, or around 6+ billion. However ETHE has around 2 million ETH that could potentially be unloaded. I think the amount of buying and selling will be similar for the first few months, similar to how GBTC played out. I will be looking to buy ETH if the risk / reward makes sense, or if the price is low enough it is less risky to long.
Note: I rotate profits back into BTC, which is my preference in terms of risk adjusted return.
2. ETH ETF odds revised, leading to a large 1b OI increase and a 20% rise. Polymarket odds are between 50-60% here, (as Polymarket rules are unclear, and Polymarket deadline is May 31st.)
3. ETHBTC rallies further as people sell BTC for ETH
4. ETH ETF decision does not occur before the market close, causing a quick wick down. (I take profit on my ETH longs here)
5. The ETF is approved, leading to a small spike, followed by a selloff as news traders and traders like myself fully close the trade.
I believe ETH will get 20% of the BTC flows, or around 6+ billion. However ETHE has around 2 million ETH that could potentially be unloaded. I think the amount of buying and selling will be similar for the first few months, similar to how GBTC played out. I will be looking to buy ETH if the risk / reward makes sense, or if the price is low enough it is less risky to long.
Note: I rotate profits back into BTC, which is my preference in terms of risk adjusted return.