EURAUD Lower
Trying EURAUD lower.
We have a potential double top forming from way back.
I think the narrative is changing in favour of AUD. The RBA minutes were more hawkish than people were expecting and the next meeting is live for a potential hike depending on future data. China data has been good and i'm expecting AUD data to be good on the back of this and a relatively decent AUD economy currently. The EUR narrative has lost a little bit of steam and i think global yields overall will struggle to move too much higher, which should limit EUR upside for the pair. I think as we get further into the year the better the AUD narrative will become as china slowly reopens.
correlations are a little mixed, rate differentials are a little neutral here while copper, risk and the VIX are all suggesting lower - although the pair has had trouble following this i believe because of the rising yields, which i expect will slow down.
Sentiment and positioning for the pair is extremely high which should help.
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!
We have a potential double top forming from way back.
I think the narrative is changing in favour of AUD. The RBA minutes were more hawkish than people were expecting and the next meeting is live for a potential hike depending on future data. China data has been good and i'm expecting AUD data to be good on the back of this and a relatively decent AUD economy currently. The EUR narrative has lost a little bit of steam and i think global yields overall will struggle to move too much higher, which should limit EUR upside for the pair. I think as we get further into the year the better the AUD narrative will become as china slowly reopens.
correlations are a little mixed, rate differentials are a little neutral here while copper, risk and the VIX are all suggesting lower - although the pair has had trouble following this i believe because of the rising yields, which i expect will slow down.
Sentiment and positioning for the pair is extremely high which should help.
Not trading/investment advise, feedback welcome!
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