EURNZD rate cut is effect coming

Why to
Hit resistance with fakeout
RSI close to 70 on 4h
NZD rate cut is effect coming
Possible to very reasonable retrace to FIB50
Eur PMI is still not in good shape
May 8th bearish candlestick wick
Eur have Brexit which also effect it

Why not
Eur could always surprise especially with political side since it have parliament elections
Trade war could effect NZD since it is china proxy
Possible not to reach FIB50 retrace

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I starting to be bit skeptical. But lets see what will happen after weekend.
Scalpers could try buy now since we could see recursing box targeting 1.712