A framework for NFP today in EURUSD

5 thg 4, 2019

For NFP markets are tracking confirmation that February was an outlier after the big increase in January. Here I expect a payrolls rise to 190k in March with wages +0.25% m/m. If inline with my expectations, the report will be very supportive Dollar and send the greenback rallying on renewed growth optimism as the US is not ready to fall into recession just yet.

EURUSD is sitting in same tight range of 1.120 - 1.125 all week long. If I am right on the call for a solid report today, the market will have to further price out any Fed cuts later in the year and this will provide strong support to dollar in the short-term and trigger the flow for our 1.10-1.09 targets.

Best of luck all those trading the currency board today.

5 thg 4, 2019

Ghi chú

An inline report with everything as expected.

5 thg 4, 2019

Ghi chú

Fully positioned here on the kneejerk

8 thg 4, 2019

Ghi chú

Late Asia bears have an opportunity to add here for ECB

9 thg 4, 2019

Ghi chú

A quick chart update here .. as long as 1.13 holds there is nothing to change in the position