Euro/ breakout ?
Hello traders,
Let me give you a quick recap of the latest market news
Last week Mario Draghi stated that further stimulus might be needed to ensure inflation is picking up, hinting for rate cuts. But since the ECB has been dovish for over a year, it did little to shake the markets and EUR/USD dropped around 50 pips but quickly recovered as the Fed meeting approached during which its chairman Jerome Powell clearly changed his tone to highly dovish saying that rate cuts are coming. This statement surprised the markets especially after 8 members voted for future rate cuts, for the first time in years. This led to a sharp rally of the EUR/USD which was also fueled by better than expected PMIs and bad US datas.
Now let's look at it technically:
The pair is now trading above the 200 daily SMA , 200 weekly SMA + bullish engulfing weekly candlestick + 3 white soldiers daily candlesticks pattern + a crossover of the 20 daily SMA over the 50 daily SMA which is considered very bullish, and last time this crossover happened the pair rallied beyond 1.15 back in January.
Looking at the chart the first resistance is somewhere near 1.145 (pivot high) followed by 1.15 figure.
It is also worth noting that an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern has completed on daily chart and has broken the neckline near 1.135.
The overall picture looks bullish for the near term , it is now important to check if this breakout is sustainable or it will lead to a sell off like it happened before.
Let me give you a quick recap of the latest market news
Last week Mario Draghi stated that further stimulus might be needed to ensure inflation is picking up, hinting for rate cuts. But since the ECB has been dovish for over a year, it did little to shake the markets and EUR/USD dropped around 50 pips but quickly recovered as the Fed meeting approached during which its chairman Jerome Powell clearly changed his tone to highly dovish saying that rate cuts are coming. This statement surprised the markets especially after 8 members voted for future rate cuts, for the first time in years. This led to a sharp rally of the EUR/USD which was also fueled by better than expected PMIs and bad US datas.
Now let's look at it technically:
The pair is now trading above the 200 daily SMA , 200 weekly SMA + bullish engulfing weekly candlestick + 3 white soldiers daily candlesticks pattern + a crossover of the 20 daily SMA over the 50 daily SMA which is considered very bullish, and last time this crossover happened the pair rallied beyond 1.15 back in January.
Looking at the chart the first resistance is somewhere near 1.145 (pivot high) followed by 1.15 figure.
It is also worth noting that an inverse Head and Shoulders pattern has completed on daily chart and has broken the neckline near 1.135.
The overall picture looks bullish for the near term , it is now important to check if this breakout is sustainable or it will lead to a sell off like it happened before.
Ramzi Abou Abdallah, CFTe, CMT
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