Not legal and financial advice;
Any information provided here is only the personal opinion of the author.
Any information provided here is only the personal opinion of the author.
Bình luận:
Bình luận:
Trade safe and wise.
Bình luận:
In financial markets there is no Black Swans.
This is a meaning for a wide range of others.
You think nobody knew about Lehman for at least about 3 month before they start to cut the arms?
So, "Black Swan" is a nice explanation for outside, but it is a fermentation process inside.
Traders know exactly what will happen, but they have KPI's and don't make major decisions.
The heads of investment and speculative departments also know exactly what will happen, but they have large salaries and it is not fashionable to go to the barricades against the system.
Management of large banks is aware of this in part, but none of the heads of departments do not want to lose their jobs early, so senior management often do not see the full depth of the problem, until it too late to do something except to save your underpants.
Before things like Twitter, no one in the world, except a narrow circle of professionals, could know anything, so it happened all of a sudden.
Taleb called it the "Black swan".
Now these black swans are already growing with us in fintwit and everyone can see them, but nobody believe cus most part never have such experience before.
I would venture to guess that Evergrande is exactly the same Lehman, only almost 13 years later.
And what kind of "swan" it will be, Taleb will come up with later. It wud be a history already...
So if you have a friend/girlfriend, at the level of head of some trading division in a major investment bank, he/she will almost certainly tell you whether or not we’re going to be screwed. Especially if they are credited Evergrande. #Go2thePubwithFriends …:)
Have a nice weekend.
This is a list where you can find your friend to talk about... (you can find list on Twitter)
copypaste my post here, jfi.
Trade safe and wise.
This is a meaning for a wide range of others.
You think nobody knew about Lehman for at least about 3 month before they start to cut the arms?
So, "Black Swan" is a nice explanation for outside, but it is a fermentation process inside.
Traders know exactly what will happen, but they have KPI's and don't make major decisions.
The heads of investment and speculative departments also know exactly what will happen, but they have large salaries and it is not fashionable to go to the barricades against the system.
Management of large banks is aware of this in part, but none of the heads of departments do not want to lose their jobs early, so senior management often do not see the full depth of the problem, until it too late to do something except to save your underpants.
Before things like Twitter, no one in the world, except a narrow circle of professionals, could know anything, so it happened all of a sudden.
Taleb called it the "Black swan".
Now these black swans are already growing with us in fintwit and everyone can see them, but nobody believe cus most part never have such experience before.
I would venture to guess that Evergrande is exactly the same Lehman, only almost 13 years later.
And what kind of "swan" it will be, Taleb will come up with later. It wud be a history already...
So if you have a friend/girlfriend, at the level of head of some trading division in a major investment bank, he/she will almost certainly tell you whether or not we’re going to be screwed. Especially if they are credited Evergrande. #Go2thePubwithFriends …:)
Have a nice weekend.
This is a list where you can find your friend to talk about... (you can find list on Twitter)
copypaste my post here, jfi.
Trade safe and wise.
