Overbought with Impulsive Drop Coming

15 thg 12, 2022

Multi Timeframe Analysis

CPI print surged the markets but indices shaved the gains almost within the same day. FED thereafter released 50 BP and Powell adopted a stance that slightly dropped the pair. EURUSD is now in overbought region and profit taking is around the corner.

What next: EURUSD will retest 1.037 coinciding with the (a) wave of the Elliot progression

1. Bullish order block at 0.97 on the Daily chart . Order blocks are magnets for price.
2. MFI , Prem Stoch and TDI signify bullish OVERBOUGHT momentum. CCI implying sell-off on weekly and monthly.
3. Elliot wave (a) at 1.037
4. Bearish bat harmonic patterns with target coinciding with bearish order block

Await a confluence signifying a rejection from key levels such as order blocks and harmonic entries, then take a satisfying counter position. From this juncture, we update the next forecast.

Remember: life often disrespects charts so trade with caution

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Market order position upon the confluence of valid entry rules on the 4H or 1H chart.

-=ENTRY RULES=-

Trading philosophy: Don’t short at the lowest of the bearish momentum nor do you long at the peak of a bullish impulse. The safest entries are at the end of a retrace on the 38.2%, 50%, 61.8% or 78.6% fibonacci back in the direction of the master trend.

Note: I use Daily/4H or 4h/1H market structures with wave analysis to prep for potential entries. The RSI , MACD and EMA indictors are confirmation for entries at the 4H or 1H timeframe

For Institutional ORDER BLOCK trades:

When price reaches a bearish or bullish orderblock, ascertain the price reversal by means of
1. Dojis
2. Morning/evening stars
3. Several wicks.
4. Engulfing candles or three white soldiers in the opposite direction
5. Marbouzou in the opposite direction.
6. Break of trendline or fast EMAs

For SHORT:
4H chart should confirm that the bullish retrace had turned bearish in the direction of master trend. The MACD should have dropped below zero signifying a bearish environment. Price would have dropped below the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is below the 50 signal line

For LONG:
4H chart should confirm that the bearish retrace had turned bullish in the direction of the master trend. The MACD should have gone above zero signifying a bullish environment. Price had gone above the 10 and 20 EMA . For good measure, check that the 4h and D1 RSI is above the 50 signal line

Divergences:
The 4H, 8H and 12H chart can reveal hidden divergences on the RSI , MACD , Money Flow Index, CMFI, On Balance Volume and Stochastics. When one or more divergences manifest- be ready. Trend reversal is coming. My best practice is to wait for at least an RSI divergence on the 4H, then drop to M15 to see price shifting with a 50EMA aligned with the 4H divergence.

About me
I am not a financial advisor nor a signal provider. These are the opinions of a 20-year private trader in the legal profession as well as a businessman diversified in the tech and hospitality industries. My favored tools of the trade include wave analysis, price action on the 4H to Weekly timeframes and institutional order flow ( COT data).

In partnership with capital markets research group Plazo Sullivan Roche Capital of Mahe, Seychelles. Do your own research.