EUR/USD: Sell in the 1.0800-1.0810 range
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Some clues about the reason for yesterday's decline in the U.S. dollar index can be found from the time node. Especially the data released at this time node, there is no doubt that there is a greater relationship. We can see that the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits and the number of continuous claims for unemployment benefits in the United States announced yesterday have increased, and the number has also reached a new high since August 2023. There are various signs that the domestic employment situation in the United States has deteriorated, resulting in an increasing number of people receiving unemployment benefits. When combined with the previous poor non-agricultural data and the sharp decline in the first quarter GDP data of the United States, these factors can become a serious problem. Mountains are pressing down on the U.S. dollar index, so yesterday the U.S. dollar index suddenly went into a downward trend, stimulated by the unemployment benefits data. If there is another capital outflow at this time, it would be normal for the U.S. dollar index to fall further.
At the same time, I am also certain that this state will not last long, because the protective behavior of the US dollar index will appear at any time, so we cannot be bearish on the US dollar index at will. Instead, we must beware of the US dollar index’s desperate counterattack, and we must resolutely beware of the US dollar index going out of its normal range. The wave first suppresses and then rises.
As for the operation strategy, I suggest you choose the opportunity today to buy the U.S. dollar index at low prices and short the non-U.S. currencies at high prices. As long as the pressure on the U.S. dollar index slows down, a U.S. dollar counterattack is likely to occur. Therefore, everyone should be careful, grasp the operating rhythm, and short-term trading is enough.
To sum up, today we should focus on observing the actual trend of the U.S. dollar index, and choose the opportunity to buy at low prices; corresponding to European and American currencies, we will be slightly cautious in short selling on highs today. Based on the market, we will give the following suggestions, refer to operations as appropriate, and take short positions:
EUR/USD: Sell in the 1.0800-1.0810 range, stop loss 20 points, target 1.0780, 1.0760, 1.0740.
At the same time, I am also certain that this state will not last long, because the protective behavior of the US dollar index will appear at any time, so we cannot be bearish on the US dollar index at will. Instead, we must beware of the US dollar index’s desperate counterattack, and we must resolutely beware of the US dollar index going out of its normal range. The wave first suppresses and then rises.
As for the operation strategy, I suggest you choose the opportunity today to buy the U.S. dollar index at low prices and short the non-U.S. currencies at high prices. As long as the pressure on the U.S. dollar index slows down, a U.S. dollar counterattack is likely to occur. Therefore, everyone should be careful, grasp the operating rhythm, and short-term trading is enough.
To sum up, today we should focus on observing the actual trend of the U.S. dollar index, and choose the opportunity to buy at low prices; corresponding to European and American currencies, we will be slightly cautious in short selling on highs today. Based on the market, we will give the following suggestions, refer to operations as appropriate, and take short positions:
EUR/USD: Sell in the 1.0800-1.0810 range, stop loss 20 points, target 1.0780, 1.0760, 1.0740.
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