EURUSD Is anyone considering this pattern?

The EURUSD pair gave us a very successful sell signal two weeks ago (see chart below) and is on its way to hit our 1.07650 medium-term target:


What we haven't at the time considered as a possibility, but we clearly see it now, is the emergence of a Channel Down, if of course the November 29 High holds, that can break the current Megaphone pattern downwards, in a new long-term bearish trend.

As you can see this emerging blue Channel Down so far had two symmetrical bullish sequences to Lower Highs of around +5.50% to +5.99%. The first test of the Lower High rejection has been the Support 1 (1.08250) - 1D MA200 (orange trend-line) Support Cluster. So far they both broke but yesterday's candle closed above them, which leaves a neutral tone.

If today's 1D candle closes below, we can expect an extension similar to August 02 which hit the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line). The longer the 1D RSI takes to reach the 30.00 oversold barrier, the more likely it is for the Channel Down to prevail over the Megaphone.

If in turn, the pair closes a 1D candle below the 1D MA50 too, we expect a test of Support 3 at 1.04500, almost the bottom (Lower Lows trend-line) of the Megaphone. If however the 1D MA50 holds and closes the candles above it, you can expect a rebound to at least the top of the Channel Down.

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