EURUSD 1D MA50 test possible. Then re-evaluate.

17 thg 5, 2022

The EURUSD pair has been trading within a Channel Down since the end of January 2022. Above its median it has been as sell opportunity while below it has been a buy. Every hit on the Lower Lows trend-line (bottom) of the Channel Down has seen roughly a +3.50% rise but that condition hasn't yet been fulfilled on the last Lower Low.

As you see on this chart, a proper rebound has been missing since April 28. On Friday, the price made a new Lower Low and we are now on the 3rd straight green 1D candle. The 1D RSI is on Higher Lows though, indicating a Bullish Divergence. As a result, we may now get the +3.50% rebound and if we do it should reach at least 1.0700 on the medium-term by the end of May. At that time, it may make contact with the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line), which poses as the first Resistance.

In order to turn bullish long-term, the price needs to break above the April Resistance of 1.09415. Practically that would mean a break above the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) by that time, so the target would be the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line).

Until then, the trend remains bearish and keep aiming for Lower Lows.


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