EUR/USD: Updated long-term overview and possible scenario's
There's alot on the chart I admit... So it might again look somewhat cluttered but it is important for me to consider all the different scenario's and because I don't want to forget my reasoning if we continue on the path that I think we're on and which might take months to years to develop... If you take the time to look at the details I hope you will agree...
Down signs:
- MA's
- Possible MACD histogram divergence developing (Not confimed)
- Bearish flag pattern
Up signs:
- Up channel
- Possible ascending triangle
- Upward sloping MACD lines
- RSI above 50 again
- 38.2 fib level not yet reached...
- Possible AB=CD with a possible bearish 3-drives pattern as an extension
- Possible WXY pattern with possible WXYXZ pattern as an extension
- Possible completion of bearish bat patterns around key levels on this timeframe (also on smaller timeframes)
- Up trendline on the 1H and 4H charts
Still more "up" than "down" signs...
Currently looking to get long at a decent entry level for a further ride up to the first short-term targets:
Possible gameplan based on this analysis:
Very-short-term (days to 1 week):
- Around 1.1460, a previous structure level
- Around 1.1500 for completion of a bat on the 1H chart (+ psych level, allthough broken before...)
Short-term (1 or more weeks):
- Up after a possible retracement to around 1.1800, the important 38.2 fib level!
Mid-term (weeks to months):
- Further up afer a possible decent retracement to the next fib levels (50% and 61.8%)
- Alternatively down after breaking the "up" channel to the long-term trendline and possibly parity
Long-term (months to 1-2 years):
- Possibly up again from the long-term "up" channel or parity to completion of one of the different patterns that can be drawn on the long-term (1.3600 as the important 0.886 retracement of the May 2014 to March 2015 down move!)
- Down again after that, but that's far from now, I'm betting I will have to update this analysis much sooner...
I will not necessarily trade off of this idea but will again use this as a possible roadmap to base my smaller-timeframe trades on. I will post an update if we get to one or more of these levels or when PA invalidates my current views and gameplan.
Down signs:
- MA's
- Possible MACD histogram divergence developing (Not confimed)
- Bearish flag pattern
Up signs:
- Up channel
- Possible ascending triangle
- Upward sloping MACD lines
- RSI above 50 again
- 38.2 fib level not yet reached...
- Possible AB=CD with a possible bearish 3-drives pattern as an extension
- Possible WXY pattern with possible WXYXZ pattern as an extension
- Possible completion of bearish bat patterns around key levels on this timeframe (also on smaller timeframes)
- Up trendline on the 1H and 4H charts
Still more "up" than "down" signs...
Currently looking to get long at a decent entry level for a further ride up to the first short-term targets:
Possible gameplan based on this analysis:
Very-short-term (days to 1 week):
- Around 1.1460, a previous structure level
- Around 1.1500 for completion of a bat on the 1H chart (+ psych level, allthough broken before...)
Short-term (1 or more weeks):
- Up after a possible retracement to around 1.1800, the important 38.2 fib level!
Mid-term (weeks to months):
- Further up afer a possible decent retracement to the next fib levels (50% and 61.8%)
- Alternatively down after breaking the "up" channel to the long-term trendline and possibly parity
Long-term (months to 1-2 years):
- Possibly up again from the long-term "up" channel or parity to completion of one of the different patterns that can be drawn on the long-term (1.3600 as the important 0.886 retracement of the May 2014 to March 2015 down move!)
- Down again after that, but that's far from now, I'm betting I will have to update this analysis much sooner...
I will not necessarily trade off of this idea but will again use this as a possible roadmap to base my smaller-timeframe trades on. I will post an update if we get to one or more of these levels or when PA invalidates my current views and gameplan.
