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EURUSD: Focus On Geopolitics

FX:EURUSD   Euro / Đô la Mỹ
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Turn your attention now to geopolitics. 2016 all technical anaylsis had been wrong - and not pollsters only.

To predict any direction of EURUSD trader needs to understand precisely what´s about the upcomming elections in Europe.

This trading idea is focused on the EURUSD but linked to the Election in Germany, Netherlands, Italy and the Euro -0.62% -0.62% as well. Follow up the updates here.
Bình luận: FEB 16 2017: Donald Trump backfires on Netherlands far right wing party. Expect same for Marine Le Pen.

Quote: With his uncompromising language about immigration and Islam, Geert Wilders has been stirring up Dutch politics for several years now. But since the election campaign in the Netherlands formally began Wednesday, polls have shown that his popularity is on shaky ground. His far-right Freedom party (PVV) still holds an advantage over the ruling Conservative (VDD) party, but one that is narrowing.
Wendy Jansma, a 29 year-old healthcare student, was considering voting for Wilders. She likes that he has “the guts” to talk about problems, and is willing to put Dutch people ahead of newcomers. But the behaviour of newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump has caused her to reconsider. “I am afraid when I look at Trump – I don’t want to have someone like that in power here. That would be taking a big risk,” she told Vice News.
Bình luận: FEB 17 2017: Europes Voters are getting more scared about Trump

Todays topic is yesterdays Trumps meeting with "the press". People getting scared about Donald Trump. Latest poll in Germany is showing, that 78% of all Germans now scared (!) about Trump. Same time far right parties losing massively voters in Europe. The latest opionion poll in the netherlands is showing a dramatic loss of Voters for Wilders. If ever this numbers migh be confirmed in the next days than Wilders lost 40% (!) of all voters sind Trumps inauguration.
Bình luận: FEB 18 2017: Trump approval rating sets a new low with 38

Expect Donald Trump is losing more and more supporters. Same time the low approval rates explaining why Trumps tone since few days getting more and more aggressive. Expect another u-turn if Trump recognize that he will fail if he do not change this way of communication. Expect that one of his aids (Conway/Spicer/Bannon) gets "fired" next. This will cause another spike to the upside for stockmarkets.
Bình luận: FEB 18 2017 "The Anglo Saxon world does not fully understand the mechanics of French elections"

Quote: One French hedge fund manager said he was relaxed about the election outcome, with Ms Le Pen considered a long shot in scenarios that require an unexpected turn of events, such as support for Mr Macron crumbling.
“The only way for the Front National to gain power is to secure more than 50 per cent of the vote in the first round,” said Renaud Champion, head of credit at La Française GIS. “The Anglo Saxon world does not fully understand the mechanics of French elections.” Source:
Bình luận: FEB 18 2017: Donald Trumps backfire on Europen far right parties

Opinion Polls Netherlands (Election is on March 15. 2017)

Quote: The seat projections in the graphs below are continuous from September 2012 (the last general election) up to the current date. Each colored line specifies a political party; numbers on the y-axis represent numbers of seats.
(Open the link to the how much likely voters the far right anti-Islam and anti-EU party PVV (Wilders) lost since Trump´s Inauguration)
Bình luận: Comment: FEB 18 2017: Trumps approval rates on record lows. What does this means (historically)?

Read more:
Quote: Disapproval
Trump’s Approval Ratings Are Down. How Much Does It Mean?
Bình luận: FEB 18 2017: Washington PR offensive fails to quell Europe's anxiety over Trump

Commodities16 minutes ago (Feb 18, 2017 04:31PM ET)

By Noah Barkin

MUNICH (Reuters) - One month into the unusual presidency of Donald Trump, his most senior cabinet members were deployed to Brussels, Bonn and Munich this week to reassure nervous Europeans that everything would be okay. ...
.... "Pence and Mattis and Tillerson can come here and talk about the importance of the transatlantic relationship and NATO - and that is all good," said Elmar Brok, head of the foreign affairs committee of the European Parliament and a party ally of German Chancellor Angela Merkel. "But we don't know what's coming on Twitter tomorrow morning," he said, referring to Trump's penchant for spilling out policy statements via social media. Source:
Bình luận: FEB 18 2017: Maybe this is the reason why Donald Trump rallies today in Florida

Drama mounts on Capitol Hill over Trump and Russia ties, 2016 election interference

Here’s how Congress is handling Russia investigations
Leigh Ann Caldwell
2 Hours Ago

Drama is building on Capitol Hill over current and potential investigations into Russia's alleged interference in last year's election and the pre-inauguration contacts between President Donald Trump's national security adviser and Russia's ambassador. At the end of a week's worth of new revelations and a resignation, FBI Director James Comey held a closed-door meeting with the Senate Intelligence Committee Friday.
Bình luận: JAN 19 2017: Trump backfires European far right wing parties: Germany´s AfD lost 50% of all likely voters within 4 month only.

Latest poll from today is showing Germany´s anti EU and anti Muslim Party AfD droped to 9% of likely voters in the September election. This is a huge loss of 50% of all likely voters. One day before Trumps inauguration opinon polls showing the AfD to win at least 16-18%.
Bình luận: JAN 20 2017: Investor´s Sentiment highly bearish

Investor´s Sentiment, Europe, Germany:

Today´s survey is saying

1. Pro´s put buying at Germany´s Eurex is as high as before the U.S. election.
2. Retail Investors Sentiment is most negative sind 2015.
Bình luận: FEB 20 2017 Bond Traders Sentiment highly bearish as well.

Bond Traders Are Placing Euro-Breakup Bets Again

by Stephen Spratt
Hidden under the surface of European bond markets, traders are placing bets that will pay out if the risks in the euro zone severely escalate. Markets across the continent have started to price in the increased potential for anti-euro candidates to win elections in France and Italy. Recent positioning in German and Italian bonds are hedges against a blow-up in the risk of a breakup in the common currency, said traders in London and New York, who asked not to be identified because they are not authorized to speak publicly. Six-month German securities have rallied more than benchmark tenors this month and open interest in two-year note futures has surged, suggesting investors are building up long positions in assets that are the closest to cash in terms of safety. The yield spread between Italian low- and high-coupon bonds has widened as traders bet against the latter, which would fall much more if the country’s creditworthiness is called into question. Source:
Bình luận: Comment: FEB 21 2017: Euro zone businesses growth fastest since April 2011: PMIs
Bình luận: FEB 21 2017: Fears about LePen starting to show

Marine Le Pen could 'blow up' the European Union, and the fear's starting to show
Bình luận: FEB 21 2017 Border tax hits political reality, and only Trump can save it

John Harwood | @johnjharwood
6 Mins Ago
Quote: So, Sen. David Perdue of Georgia, a former retail executive, has pronounced border adjustment an economic threat. Sen. Tom Cotton of Arkansas, home base of Wal-Mart, has vowed to fight it. John Cornyn of Texas, who worries about the effect on oil prices and serves as the Senate's second-ranking Republican, last week pronounced border adjustment "on life support." Those three Republicans alone — if they hold firm — could be enough to sink the idea in a Senate where Republicans control just 52 seats. Source:
Bình luận: FEB 21 2017: Watch how strong the Mexican Peos is today:

Bình luận: FEB 22 2017: Only one side can be right.

1. Markets:
Quote: Euro plummets to 6 week lows as Le Pen's presidential bid looms: SocGen
Investors appear to be increasingly nervous ahead of the scheduled elections in the Netherlands, France and Germany after failing to foresee the outcomes of the U.K.'s Brexit vote and U.S. President Donald Trump's victory. "So much uncertainty with 9 weeks to go until the first round of the (French) election means we will probably see nervousness persist, and undermine the Euro across the board," Societe Generale analysts concluded. Soure:


2. Facts:
Germany´s far right wing and antie EU and anti Islam Party AfD dropped today to 8% of likely voters fro 18% last year. This is a huge loss of 60% of all likely voters since August 2016.

Netherlands far right wing and anti EU, anti EURO and anti Islam Party PVV (Wlders) is loosing very fast ground now week by week and lost at least 25 - 40% of all likely voters. The PVV is now expected to win 16% of all votersonly to become probaly second stronges party only. This is the lowest numbers in more than two years. The Nederlands elections is held on March 15 2017.
Bình luận: FEB 22 2017: BREAKING: French centrist politician Bayrou says will not stand in presidential election; will back Macron
Bình luận: FEB 22 2017: Far-right PVV losing seats, liberals remain stable, polls shows.

Today´s facts about Netherland elections: Donald Trump backfires European far right wing parties.

Quote: Geert Wilders’ far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) and Prime Minister Mark Rutte’s liberal People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) are in a dead heat in the lead-up to the March 15 Dutch election, according to a poll published Wednesday. Analyst Tom Louwerse told local media that while Rutte’s party has been relatively stable over the course of the past few weeks, Wilders’ has been on a slight downward trajectory, sliding from an expected 35 seats in polls last month. Both Wilders and Rutte are likely to fall short of an absolute majority in parliament. Rutte has ruled out cooperating with the far right to maintain power.
Bình luận: FEB 23 2017: Prospect of a centrist alliance snaps 3-day losing streak for sovereign debt


Quote: Selling pressure on French bonds ebbed on Thursday, pushing the yield on the 10-year bond back below 1 per cent, as the prospect of a centrist alliance in the country’s presidential election eased anxiety that far-right candidate Marine Le Pen will win.
Bình luận: FEB 23 2017: Wilders PVV loosing more ground. Dutch Prime Ministers Rutte´s PVV Party is taking the lead now.
Todays polls:
VVD: 28 Seats
PVV: 26 Seats
Bình luận: FEB 23 Februar: The Washington Post counted 133 false or misleading claims in the first 35 days of Trump´s Presidency. US-Traders might underestimate that European Voters have a diffrent view on Trumps lies. Some of Trumps lies are about European Countries and had been answered allready on Trump twitter account by European Citizens. Trumps repeated lies backfires European far right parties.
Bình luận:
Bình luận: FEB 24 2017: Todays Opinion polls for the first round of voting

Marine LePen: 26%
Emanuel Macron: 23,5%

This is the highest number of likely voteres for Macron and might explain the sharp drop in France Government Yields today and in the last three days. Source:
Bình luận: FEB 25 2017: Fake Sweden expert on Fox News – has criminal convictions in US, no connection to Swedish security

Story telling like this backfires European far right parties. U.S. and U.K. Traders underestimate how this is going to affect all European Elections. European Voters trun away from far right parties wich all supporting Donald Trump.
Bình luận: Comment: FEB 27 2017: France Government Bonds dropping today another 3,5 % for the 4 day in a row.
Bình luận: FEB 28 2017: France's Marine Le Pen may be losing election momentum — and investors like it

Qute: Marine Le Pen's chances of becoming France's next president may be slipping and investors are breathing a sigh of relief.
A poll released Tuesday by French firm Ifop showed the far-right candidate's lead over centrist Emmanuel Macron declining to just 1.5 percentage points. Another poll released by Opinionway showed Macron defeating Le Pen in the May 7 runoff election. France holds two rounds of voting in presidential contests. French bond prices rose after the polls, bringing their yields closer in line with more steady German yields. The French 10-year note yield declined to 0.888 percent, narrowing its spread with the 10-year German sovereign yield to around 0.68 percentage point. Bond yields move inversely to bond prices.
French 10-year yield in 2016
Bình luận: Comment: MAR 04 2017: French shares climb as Marine Le Pen loses ground. Euro gains 1,09% income day only to highest levels in 2 weeks.
Bình luận: MAR 05 2017 World News | Sun Mar 5, 2017 | 3:13pm GMT
Pressure mounts on France's Fillon as party heavyweights look to Juppe
Bình luận: MAR 05 2017 France's Fillon makes no promises to stay as party fights for electoral survival
Bình luận: MAR 6 2017 Investor fears over Europe could be overdone, but watch out for the US: Experts

Quote: Investors are concerned about the continued rise of populism could upset the current political and economic system, but Andrew Parry, head of equities at Hermes Investment Management, expects Europe to react against populism this year.
"There's the political risk that appears to be hanging over Europe. I think somewhat ironically, the more that people think that Trump is the embodiment through populism of the new economic model, the more you actually get a reaction against populism in Europe," he told CNBC's Street Signs. Source:
Bình luận: MAR 07 2017: The Dutch election is a dead heat, and the stakes for the EU could be huge

Do not underestimate the markets view about stockmarkets action

Quote: he French presidential election is grabbing all the headlines in Europe, but another contest may serve as an indicator for France's election — and Europe's future.

The Netherlands is scheduled to hold a general election on March 15, and right now the race is a dead heat between Geert Wilders — leader of the populist Party of Freedom (PVV) — and incumbent Prime Minister Mark Rutte, who leads the more moderate People's Party for Freedom (VVD).
Markets will be watching the Dutch contest not just to get a sense of who may win the French election, but to gauge the likelihood of the European Union's disintegration.
"That could be the canary in the coal mine," said Art Hogan, chief market strategist at Wunderlich Securities, referring to the Dutch election. "This could be a preview of what could happen in the French election."
Bình luận: MAR 07 2017: Dutch populist Wilders loses ground in the polls as 'Trump effect' comes into play: Analyst

Quote: Dutch populist Geert Wilders' popularity seems to be diminishing among the Netherlands electorate as his chances of an outright victory appear to be hampered by U.S. President Donald Trump's protectionist agenda.
With just over a week to go until the Netherlands general election, the leader of the anti-immigration Party for Freedom (PVV) is now running neck and neck with Prime Minister Mark Rutte's Liberals, according to a poll published Sunday.
"I can only speculate, but I think a negative Trump effects is at play," Holger Sandte, chief European analyst at Nordea, told CNBC in an email Tuesday.
Bình luận: MAR 08 2017: Wilder far right fatty loosing more ground now

PVV: 23 Seats
VVD: 25 Seats
Bình luận: MAR 08 2017: Wilders anti muslim and anti EU party PVV losses accelerating one week bevore election day.

PVV: 20 Seats
VVD: 24 Seats
Bình luận: MAR 08 2017: For German Traders and Readers

It´s on the frontpage of Germany largest newspaper: Trump backfires European far right parties:
Bình luận: MAR 08 2017: Netherlands
Dutch Populist Geert Wilders Is Lagging in the Polls Due to the 'Trump Effect'
Bình luận: MAR 08 2017: Netherlands
Dutch Populist Wilders Feels Trump Burn With Slide in Polls
Bình luận: MAR 09 2017:France's Macron seen on top in first round presidential vote: Poll
Bình luận: MAR10 2017: 5 days before the Dutch Election Netherlands anti-Islam and anti EU Party PVV is falling behind.

Number of seats to win next wednesday:

VVD: 25
CDA: 22
PVV: 22 (Netherlands far right party, Geert Wilders, hould had won 38 in June 2016)
GL: 20
Bình luận: MAR 17 2017: Euro rising after Dutch Election
Bình luận: MAR 2017: Euro rising after Macron won first TV Debate in France over Marine LePen.
Bình luận: MAR 22 2017: Dollar slump continues amid Trump jitters

Quote: - The dollar slumped against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday, as investors questioned the progress of Trump’s economic policies while weaker than expected existing home sales weighed on sentiment. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, dipped 0.12% to 99.43 by 13:10 EDT. The dollar dived to session lows, as investors focused on the lack of progress concerning the Trump administration’s pro-growth policies ahead of a key House vote on Thursday while weaker than expected existing home sales added to downside momentum. Source:
Bình luận: March 23 201, French Election: After first TV-Debate Macron is taking the lead for the first round of election

Macron: 26%
LePen: 25%
Bình luận: MAR 24 2017: Trump's approval rating craters in poll — and his base is the culprit

Quote: President Donald Trump's approval rating has fallen to 37% — a new low, according to a Quinnipiac University national poll released Wednesday. The poll found the president to be losing crucial support among Republicans, men, and white voters. The survey of 1,056 voters from across the US found that Trump's approval among Republican voters dropped to 81%, from 91% of those surveyed in a similar Quinnipiac poll two weeks ago. His disapproval rating among that group jumped to 14% from 5%.
The poll showed those in Trump's most supportive demographics — male and white voters — to be increasingly unhappy with his performance. Forty-three percent of men approved of Trump — down from 49% in the most recent poll, while 44% of white voters approved, also down from 49%. "Most alarming for President Donald Trump, the demographic underpinnings of his support, Republicans, white voters, especially men and those without a college degree, are starting to have doubts," the assistant director of the poll, Tim Malloy, said in a statement. Source:
Bình luận: APR 01 2017: For Stockmarket Traders the Brexit is linked with "the rise of populism" in Europe. In most traders logic the Brexit should had caused a victory of Dutch far right party PVV (Gert Wilders) and should cause a victory of Marine LePen. The overall logic behind this story was to short European stockmarkets. This the rise of populism die not happened because voters in Europe turning away from populism, wich finally caused without any doubt the Brexit.

Two votes had been won by populists: The Brexit and the U.S. Election. Now lets have a look, how the latest approval rates are for Donald Trump:

MAR 30 2017: Majority of Americans think Trump's doing a poor job and the country is headed in the wrong direction: Poll
Trump's approval rating slips to another new low, much lower than resent presidents at this point in their terms
Bình luận: APR 03 2017: Donald Trump says he is ‘totally in favour’ of ‘wonderful’ EU
US President performs apparent U-turn after criticising bloc in previous interviews
Bình luận: APR 03 2017: "France will vote in a two-round presidential election at the end this month and at the start of May, with investors worried by the risk that the far-right anti-EU Marine Le Pen could stage a surprise victory"
Bình luận: APR 04 2017: "Risk free trades against Europe on the rise of populism" vs. facts and figures

Quote: In recent polls, AfD (Germany´s far right party) has dropped dangerously close to the five percent threshold
Head of AfD, Frauke Petry (41), who has been under pressure within her Party, has now struck back – by indirectly threatening to step down
In recent polls, AfD has dropped dangerously close to the five percent threshold (currently seven percent, according to Allensbach). Without Petry, this might become even more of a tight squeeze. In the end, the party might fail to make it into parliament. Source:
Bình luận: APR 04 2017: Michael Hasenstab bets against euro in populist hedge

Quote: Michael Hasenstab is betting against the euro, a striking position for an investment manager celebrated in Europe for throwing the weight of Franklin Templeton’s flagship bond fund behind Ireland and Hungary as they emerged from the debt crisis. Speaking to the Financial Times, his comments highlight the concerns of many international investors, amplified following a campaign pledge from Marine Le Pen, presidential candidate of the far right in France’s upcoming presidential election, to withdraw the country from Europe’s single currency.
Bình luận: Comment: APR 05 2017 - French election debate: Macron marches on as Le Pen loses out
Bình luận: APR 06 2017- Europe, Êconomy
Draghi says ECB's policy stance is still appropriate, too soon to reduce stimulus
Bình luận: Comment: APR 08 2017: Marine LePen now lost 20% of likely voters for first round of election compared to June 2016
Bình luận: APR 12 2017 - Trump tanks the dollar after saying it's 'getting too strong'
Bình luận: APR 18 2017: Euro up - unexpectedly

Bình luận: APR 20 2017: It´s now headline on
French Election Shocker: Pollsters Baffled by Four-Way Race
Bình luận: APR 24 2017: Angela Merkel reportedly had to explain the 'fundamentals' of EU trade to Trump 11 times
Bình luận: APR 24 2017 - FX Volatility woul support strong up move for the Euro. Open this chart and load new bars.
Bình luận: APR 25 2017 - Forex - Euro hits fresh 5-month highs, yen sinks
Bình luận: German manufacturing growth near six-year high in April: PMI
Bình luận: Moment of truth for the euro as France votes
Bình luận: Euro hits one-year high vs. yen, tops $1.10 on French election relief
Bình luận: Dollar advances as euro slips after Macron seals landslide victory
Bình luận: Forex - Dollar dips after Trump fires FBI boss Comey
Giao dịch đang hoạt động: Sold two times 1/8, buying European Stockmarket Indizes.
Giao dịch đang hoạt động: Sold again two times 1/8, buying EURO Stockmarket Indizes.
Bình luận: Comment: Trump has officially become a negative for the US dollar
Bình luận: Pound Traders Sweat as Narrowing Polls Boost Election Jitters
Bình luận: UK could be heading towards hung parliament after general election, pollster predicts
YouGov predicts the Conservatives may win just 310 seats – 16 shy of an absolute majority
Bình luận: Polls suggest parliamentary majority within reach for France's Macron
Bình luận: Markets now start to focus on the UK election. For the DAX anything else than the scheduled "hard BREXIT" matters and should gain positiv momentum medium term.
Bình luận: German unemployment rate falls to new record low
Bình luận: George Soros`s bets against Donald Trump failed.

This is what he bet against and maybe he is going to fail again:

Soros says the European Union is now in an existential crisis, surrounded by hostile powers
Bình luận: Labour ahead of Conservatives in unadjusted poll of voters
Overall result for Ipsos Mori still shows Theresa May ahead by five points - but the gap is narrowing in Jeremy Corbyn's favour
Bình luận: British PM May's election gamble in doubt as poll lead falls to one point
Bình luận: - Europe is likely to set the tone for global financial markets this week, with the European Central Bank policy meeting and British general election on investors' minds.
Meanwhile, in the U.S., market players will pay close attention to former FBI director James Comey's testimony before the Senate Intelligence Committee, in a hearing that could add to difficulties facing President Donald Trump.
Bình luận: Week Ahead: UK Election, Slowing U.S. Growth Boost Safe Havens
Bình luận: Trump backfires Theresa May.
Bình luận: Comment: Here's why the gusher of billions into European stocks should continue
Political risks in Europe still exist, but analysts point to recent figures that suggest the euro zone economy is growing at its fastest rate in years, much faster than the U.S. economy.
European focused, U.S.-based domiciled funds alone saw net inflows of $4.2 billion in May, bringing total net flows year-to-date to $9.2 billion.
So far this year investors moved $13.7 billion to European funds.
Bình luận: The British election is in 3 days — and the polls are getting a lot closer
Bình luận: UK General Election polls: Tory lead slashed by 16 points as 'election race on a knife edge'
Bình luận: Comment: Dollar hits seven-month low, stocks, oil retreat as caution reigns
Bình luận: EURO buying continue:

Giao dịch được đóng thủ công: Trade closed @1.1690. Bought @1.0680. Net gain of 1.000 (10.000) pips.

MAR 22 2017: Dollar slump continues amid Trump jitters

Quote: - The dollar slumped against a basket of major currencies on Wednesday, as investors questioned the progress of Trump’s economic policies while weaker than expected existing home sales weighed on sentiment. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, dipped 0.12% to 99.43 by 13:10 EDT. The dollar dived to session lows, as investors focused on the lack of progress concerning the Trump administration’s pro-growth policies ahead of a key House vote on Thursday while weaker than expected existing home sales added to downside momentum. Source:
Phản hồi
MAR 2017: Euro rising after Macron won first TV Debate in France over Marine LePen.;-sterling-and-euro-hit-highs-467771
Phản hồi
Very nice info! Thanks alot!
Phản hồi
So...what is your idea....after all that talk ??
+1 Phản hồi
SwissView Cambista
@Cambista, my idea is to avoid trading ideas like this:

Phản hồi
I do not forget what I need.
If I find out any idea, I will add on here.
BTW I was sorry early leaving at the chatting.
My wife called phone 2more times after that.
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SwissView handosul
@handosul, appreciate to continue our discussion.
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