'Risk-off' knocking at the moonlit door; Long Gold

1 thg 12, 2020

📌 After completing a second test of 1.20xx, profit taking entered into play with the fix yesterday. Dollar is clearly restrained by Fed and WH prevention and then by a later of risk hedge clearings.

Before I present the usual schematic representation, we should look at just how difficult the environment is to play correctly with timing these reversals. As soon as a divergence is formed, we have the choice of a shallow or deep retrace in EURUSD towards 1.16xx/1.17xx or a sharp leg higher in Gold towards $1,970 and $2,100.

Gold bears must also bear in mind risk-off flows are once again knocking at the door via Iran after clearing the vaccine newsflow. I have been fielding questions around stimulus for a while, it is easy to lean on CB's but the correlation is breaking and exactly on time when this transfer should happen. Hard to understand; a better way to put this is look for a large correction in Gold after clearing the board to set about some painstaking defence for the next round of risk-off flows cooking.

Thanks as usual for keeping the support coming 👍 or 👎