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ridethepig | EURUSD Macro Update 2019.10.17
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~~~~~~~~~~~############## LONG MACRO POST ##############~~~~~~~~~~~
Firstly, lets begin with quick a recap of the bigger picture with our Weekly Macro EURUSD chart:
On the flow side, as widely expected the ending of [Wave 2] and the beginning of an impulsive [Wave 3]. The 1.0905x lows held and attracted a fresh round of EUR demand. For the European fundamentals, it should be no surprises we are starting a new chapter in fiscal policy here too, I recommend all to embrace the fiscal easing and continue to work the buy-side in EUR.
On the USD side we updated the long term chart earlier with the Dollar focus session from Telegram. Markets are positioning for a 25bps cut and QE Lite from Fed later the month and marking the long-term highs in USD:
On the US side, fiscal flexibility has declined as deficits now overshoot 4% of GDP. Although the monetary side looks a lot better than Europe. The US will continue to lean on the Monetary side, while Europe look towards Fiscal. Remember these are long-term drivers of FX, drivers that move economies, not 100 - 200 pip swings intraday.
Moving to the Daily charts, as those following will know the ECB floor was the one to track. After the lows held we got a fresh channel break and momentum is kicking in.
We covered the US-China trade talks providing the ebb and flows all the way throughout [Wave 2]:
While the Central Banks helped have carve the inside waves:
All calculated flawlessly and traded live here:
In any case....a large hint of what is to come.... We are seeing major clues in other EUR crosses that EUR strength is not to be discarded like EURJPY:
The Fed flooding markets with USD supply via excess reserves will keep USD turning lower. Finally we are seeing the consequences of capital flows into the US drying up. The US is losing competitive strength globally and makes sense to consider the USD peak.
Highly recommend all to jump in the comments with their ideas on EUR and EURUSD for all to benefit from. Best of luck to those already in EURUSD and loading more positions.
Firstly, lets begin with quick a recap of the bigger picture with our Weekly Macro EURUSD chart:
On the flow side, as widely expected the ending of [Wave 2] and the beginning of an impulsive [Wave 3]. The 1.0905x lows held and attracted a fresh round of EUR demand. For the European fundamentals, it should be no surprises we are starting a new chapter in fiscal policy here too, I recommend all to embrace the fiscal easing and continue to work the buy-side in EUR.
On the USD side we updated the long term chart earlier with the Dollar focus session from Telegram. Markets are positioning for a 25bps cut and QE Lite from Fed later the month and marking the long-term highs in USD:
On the US side, fiscal flexibility has declined as deficits now overshoot 4% of GDP. Although the monetary side looks a lot better than Europe. The US will continue to lean on the Monetary side, while Europe look towards Fiscal. Remember these are long-term drivers of FX, drivers that move economies, not 100 - 200 pip swings intraday.
Moving to the Daily charts, as those following will know the ECB floor was the one to track. After the lows held we got a fresh channel break and momentum is kicking in.
We covered the US-China trade talks providing the ebb and flows all the way throughout [Wave 2]:
While the Central Banks helped have carve the inside waves:
All calculated flawlessly and traded live here:
In any case....a large hint of what is to come.... We are seeing major clues in other EUR crosses that EUR strength is not to be discarded like EURJPY:
The Fed flooding markets with USD supply via excess reserves will keep USD turning lower. Finally we are seeing the consequences of capital flows into the US drying up. The US is losing competitive strength globally and makes sense to consider the USD peak.
Highly recommend all to jump in the comments with their ideas on EUR and EURUSD for all to benefit from. Best of luck to those already in EURUSD and loading more positions.
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