Let's try this again - FET Short

FET has hit a 6.85 just as it did in its last market cycle top. I think that from here there is a chance that it dumps down to the 2.618 area as an initial dump. This is approximately around $1.22.

Once this initial dump takes place, it will likely do a nice bounce back upwards, which typically sets up another dump/short opportunity. This bounce will probably take us back up to around $2.50. So a nice long opportunity within a short opportunity. If this plays out as it did last time, you should be able to short down to around 57 cents. So first short - about 60%, counter trend long - 100%, second short op - 73%. That's IF this plays out the same way as it did last cycle.

If we just continue bullish - my next upward target is $4.52.

Đóng lệnh: dừng lỗ:

Looks like it is probably headed to 4.52ish. There wasn't any confirmation on this one - but the fib setup compared to the last cycle was intriguing.

Giao dịch đang hoạt động:

OK - this looks to be a fake-out. Perhaps this short trade idea might actually get validated. The market has been very screwy today so far.

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FET is continuing to trend on the hourly timeframe - so far it looks like it wants to head to 4.52.

Đã hủy lệnh:

I posted an idea for the bullish scenario. Targets are 4.54 and 7.28. I've been trading FET on the hourly timeframe

Giao dịch đang hoạt động:

If this actually ends up playing out, I will crap myself.

Giao dịch đang hoạt động:

I think that a nice entry may be given around $3.00 if you are looking to short FET. This push up should be pretty telling.

Giao dịch đang hoạt động:

this bounce should reveal to us if this short opportunity is going to play out or not. This will likely serve as a prime entry if we ultimately get rejected and this is a good short op. Otherwise my eyes are on $4.52 as a next target.

Giao dịch đang hoạt động:

We had a nice bearish 2 week close. Still feeling strong about this short.

Bình luận:

If Bitcoin breaks out of this triangle - and goes and taps around 85k, then I could see this going up to 4.52...where it then may actually top out.

Bình luận:

This may actually be a rising wedge on BTC. If we get a bearish week this week, the hanging man on the weekly chart may get confirmation for BTC. That would support this short.

Giao dịch đang hoạt động:

Ideally, we would like to close this week at $2.77 or below. That would be an excellent bearish case.

Bình luận:

this may be what is developing.

Giao dịch đang hoạt động:

and here we go with our first major spill : )

Giao dịch đang hoạt động:

So, we actually hit the 3.618 as the first pivot point. This is due to FET doing the big fake-out over the 6.85, which skewed the percentages as seen in the first market cycle top in the last bull run. (2021)

Giao dịch đang hoạt động:

So, we did get a nice 50% short out of this idea. Now we are gearing back up for another short. I think that the prime entry is coming shortly, around 2.70ish. I will say that the weekly candlesticks do look different than what they did in the cycle that I am comparing this to.

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OK - it looks to be going as expected since the last update. I took on another short position at 2.60 this morning. We seem to be getting rejection from this area. This could of course change, but I think that starting your short positions again within this area is wise. You can always just get stopped out and reposition if it goes against you in the short term.

Giao dịch đang hoạt động:

OK - so we are probably headed back up into the short zone again short term. I consider the short zone 2.54ish and above.

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I took profits on my short from $2.60 here. I think that we might get another shot at $2.54 and above to take another short position, granted that we don't switch back to bullish.

Giao dịch đang hoạt động:

Well, I had to add back to my short once I saw that local resistance was holding. So, away she blows.

Giao dịch đang hoạt động:

Alright, it still looks as if we get another shot at 2.54ish or above.

Giao dịch đang hoạt động:

Alright, so I am still in the belief that we are going to get another shot at 2.54 or more for yet another short building opportunity.

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Yep, daily chart definitely supports a nice rally. I still strongly expect another shot at 2.54 or more to short again.

Giao dịch đang hoạt động:

Here we are just shy of the expected 2.54 level. We hit 2.52 early this AM. I am nibbling at shorts again in this area. I'm setting a stop just above the 2.54 area in case we go higher. repositioning is just a part of the game.

Giao dịch đang hoạt động:

While we are in this area, taking shorts as close to 2.54ish as possible I think is best practice. If we establish support on top of 2.54, then it would obv be time to reposition. This is looking pretty promising as a shorting area as it did before on the 20th-24th of April last month.

Giao dịch đang hoạt động:

alright, it has been confirmed that the area around 2.54 was a good place to take shorts. Hopefully anyone following this caught it.

Giao dịch đang hoạt động:

The updated Take profit target zones for this particular idea now that we have more data: TP 1: 1.42 - 1.22 TP 2: .90 - .63

Giao dịch đang hoạt động:

Sry, I meant to post this update earlier. I was tired last night, though.

We probably get a nice shot at the descending trendline above again - which is going to be close to 2.50 if we hit it. We may overshoot it and hit the 2.54 area or above. Of course, we could always build support on top of 2.54 and potentially have the short opportunities exhausted for now as well.