A very quick idea update here after a conversation with 'ikovachky' in the Forex chat room.
We are approaching the end of the road with Brexit and timing wise it is finally time to get to work on selling the currency again. The Pound is only going one way with a Hard Brexit and if you are a believer in the bearish UK story, then you know exactly what to do here.
From a rates perspective, the UK has seen 5 months of very disappointing data. Gilt yields are likely to remain capped for the near-term, which will ease the immediate pressure on hikes and allow the MPC till the second half of 2019 before being forced to move.
On inflation, energy has kept CPI below target of late however this will rise firmly above the 2.0% target from April via sharp upticks in air fares, and utilities. A tight labour market is keeping wages held up whilst productivity recovery is nowhere to be seen. This will keep labour costs rising.
Best of luck if you are on the sell-side in Sterling, this has setup the macro trade of the year.
We are approaching the end of the road with Brexit and timing wise it is finally time to get to work on selling the currency again. The Pound is only going one way with a Hard Brexit and if you are a believer in the bearish UK story, then you know exactly what to do here.
From a rates perspective, the UK has seen 5 months of very disappointing data. Gilt yields are likely to remain capped for the near-term, which will ease the immediate pressure on hikes and allow the MPC till the second half of 2019 before being forced to move.
On inflation, energy has kept CPI below target of late however this will rise firmly above the 2.0% target from April via sharp upticks in air fares, and utilities. A tight labour market is keeping wages held up whilst productivity recovery is nowhere to be seen. This will keep labour costs rising.
Best of luck if you are on the sell-side in Sterling, this has setup the macro trade of the year.
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For those wanting to track the intricacies of the move on the hourly chart...
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Here is the second additional entry for those following:
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We have a final position posted on the sell side here in gbpjpy. By now most following should be loaded in full positions on the sell side with stops already paid for over the previous positions hitting targets... for those still on the sidelines have a 'final' opportunity to board the train
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Superb!
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Well done all those who caught the move ... a serious contender for trade of the year.
