GBPNZD - How will the BOE decision affect the pound?

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The GBPNZD currency pair is above the EMA200 and EMA50 in the 4H timeframe and is moving in its medium-term bullish channel. In case of downward correction, we can see the demand zones and buy this currency pair within those zones with appropriate risk reward.

The Bank of England has lowered its interest rate by 0.25%, bringing it to 4.75%. According to the Bank’s monetary statement, GDP is projected to grow by 0.2% in Q3 2024 compared to the previous quarter (September forecast: 0.3%) and increase by 0.3% in Q4 this year. The goal is to keep the interest rate restrictive enough until the risks of inflation persistently returning to the 2% target diminish.

Andrew Bailey, the Bank of England’s governor, noted that the rate of inflation decline has been faster than expected. However, further reduction in service price inflation is still needed to maintain the consumer price index at the 2% target level, and sufficient spare capacity will be essential to reach this goal in the medium term.

The rise in the employer’s national insurance contribution, included in the budget, is expected to have a slightly inflationary effect on prices and a marginally negative impact on wages and corporate profitability. The combined effect of increased employer national insurance and minimum wage is likely to raise hiring costs, with the net impact on inflation yet to be determined.

Adrian Orr, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s governor, highlighted geopolitical tensions as a significant risk to the economy, expressing concern over the economy lagging behind the interest rate cuts.

Orr also emphasized that climate change poses an existential threat to New Zealand, calling for serious attention to this issue. This view reflects deep economic and environmental concerns in the country.

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand’s Financial Stability Report indicates that the financial system remains resilient despite the economic downturn, with risks under control. Banks anticipate a slight increase in non-performing loans, although this level remains below what was experienced during previous economic recessions. Debt servicing costs have peaked and are now declining, with mortgage interest rates dropping over the past six months. Although many households and businesses are under financial pressure and some borrowers face challenges with rising unemployment, domestic economic challenges persist.