ridethepig | GBP Swing Positioning

17 thg 12, 2019

For those tracking "GBP Fast Flows" and "UK Election" coverage this will apply as we do a deep dive into the technicals of the swing positioning. This will serve as a live example and reference chart in the future for some of our scaling techniques and conversations. In any case let's first start by reviewing the highs we are positioning around on both the fundamental and technical side.

As widely anticipated £/$ 1.35xx was the key resistance level to track from the previous chart and has presented us with a +/- 350 tick selloff (so far):

The election strategy has been clear, a Conservative majority was a short-term bid on Sterling before a dramatic selloff via Brexit damage to the real economy. Perhaps the flows are even easier to spot in GBPAUD:

For technical flows in this conversation, we are putting 1.315x under the test. It is key support!!! and the only level to track for the rest of the week. If demand continues to absorb the selloff it will send clear messages there is still more work to be done in the ladder at 1.335x and the 1.35xx handle. Should we lose 1.315x support it will immediately unlock the macro selloff towards 1.15xx.

After it held for the London session and NY open, covering longs here makes sense with a plan to lift off retests into 1.335 and 1.350x. Will need reassessment with a daily close below 1.315x.

Jump into the comments with any questions, charts and etc. Thanks as always for keeping the support coming with likes!