Pound records, trade war and attack on Iranian tanker

14 thg 10, 2019

The United States and China negotiation on trade war took place last week. In just two days by 500 points, the GBP showed a sharp growth regarding Brexit news. Actually, we have been waiting for this for quite some time and note that this growth is not limited. This week, EU summit on Brexit will be held on Thursday. With the positive outcome, the pound may well get another five hundred growth points in the asset.

But let's not get ahead: events are still in the process, and the pound remains very vulnerable to negative news. After all, there are no real facts of the arrangements between Johnson and the Irish Prime Minister exist. So any change in negotiation may radically change market sentiment.

Our position on the pound remains unchanged. We were sure that there would be no way out without a deal, and we are sure of it. And this is an occasion for buying the pound, even after such impressive growth.

Negotiations between the USA and China. According to the current situation, the United States agreed to suspend another increase in tariffs on Chinese goods which is expected to be realized this week. The parties announced progress in the negotiations but did not work out any final agreement. So actually it is a positive news global economy, but again the situation is very precarious. According to Trump, it may take up to five weeks to prepare a final agreement. He acknowledged that the deal could break, but expressed hope that this would not happen.

We will wait for a while with gold purchases, but sales of the USDJPY pair look very promising. We place stops above 108.90, profits 106.8 and below. Moreover, the Middle East is again troubled.

At the end of the week, the Oil market strengthened. Recall, we recommended buying it in the area of 52 (WTI brand). The reason for the active trading on Friday was information about a missile attack on Iran’s oil tanker. Iran has already stated that the rocket flew in from Saudi Arabia. Given that before this, the Saudis accused Iran of attacking their oil facilities, the conclusions of Iran seem generally logical. We will remind, earlier Saudi Arabia pretended that the incident has been settled, and they will not aggravate the situation and try to take revenge on Iran.

Therefore, this week we will continue to recommend oil purchases. Moreover, the goals that we announced last week for purchases have not been achieved yet. More precisely partially achieved (recall, we predicted $ 55- $ 56).

Today is a day off in a number of countries, including the United States. Given the extremely unstable news background, this is fraught with explosions of volatility, so today you need to trade with extreme caution.