GOLD Begins Downtrend Amid Fed Rate Cut Speculations

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Gold prices have initiated a downside movement during the early European session on Monday. Market participants appear convinced that the Federal Reserve (Fed) will start cutting interest rates in September, which is seen as a potential tailwind for the non-yielding yellow metal. Our analysis indicates that the price is currently within a supply area, showing a rebound on the daily timeframe.

Commercial traders remain bearish on gold, while retail traders are holding bullish positions. Despite not having all the confirmations, we anticipate a possible drop in gold prices towards the previous demand area. The prevailing market sentiment suggests a potential for gold to continue its downward trajectory.

Moreover, the markets are also factoring in the possibility that the Fed will lower borrowing costs again in December. This expectation is preventing the US Dollar (USD) from capitalizing on its modest recovery from a three-month low, adding another layer of support for the USD-denominated gold price. Typically, lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, thereby boosting its appeal.

As the Fed's monetary policy outlook continues to evolve, the anticipation of rate cuts is likely to influence gold prices further. The interplay between commercial and retail traders' positions, along with broader market dynamics, will play a crucial role in shaping the future price movements of gold.

In conclusion, with the early signs of a downtrend in gold prices and the market's conviction about impending Fed rate cuts, we are poised to see continued volatility. The current supply area and the bearish sentiment among commercial traders support the case for a potential decline towards the previous demand area. Investors should closely monitor these developments to make informed decisions in the gold market.

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