Grauer & Weil break out and pull back

2 thg 5, 2022

1. Buy or Sell at your own risk
2. Don't risk more than 1%-2% of your capital as stop loss
3. Position Size formula:- Stop Loss Amount/(Buy Price-Initial Stop Loss Price)
4. Sell on initial stop loss hit or daily RSI closing below 40
5. Some other ways to sell stocks can be
a. 25% or 50% up in three weeks or less
b. Weekly tailing tops with high volume
c. Exhaustion gaps
d. Heavy daily volume without further upside
e. Largest one day price drop

after a consolidation since October 2021, GRAUWEIL gave a break out on 28th April and pulled back today to it's breakout point. It will be a buy if it crosses ₹72 once again with the stop at ₹67.

Other fundamentals:
1. GWIL, with track record of over six decades in electroplating business continues to have leadership position in the domestic electroplating chemical industry with around 30% market share. GWIL is promoted by More family with Mr. Umeshkumar More, currently serving as Chairman, being associated with the company since July 1969. His more than five decades of experience helps the company in strategic planning and expansion of the business.

2. GWIL has planned total capex of around Rs.150 crore in next three years period ending FY24 whereby majority of the capex pertains to expansion of its capacity for industrial paints, setting up a research & development centre, expanding capacity of its electroplating chemicals with some minor capex at each of its manufacturing facilities. Also, its earlier envisaged capex for mall expansion has been put on hold in the medium term. This capex programme is proposed to be entirely funded from internal accruals and from its available liquidity as it has no plan to avail any term debt for the same. Realization of envisaged returns from the capex would be critical to maintain its comfortable return on capital employed.

3. Owing to its robust cash accruals, the company continues to finance its operational and capex requirements largely through internal accruals leading to strong capital structure marked by overall gearing of 0.04 times as on March 31, 2021. GWIL continued to have no long-term debt except the unsecured loans from promoters and lease liability. Also, with no major debt funded capex planned till FY24, the overall gearing of the company is expected to remain at comfortable level. On the back of very minimal debt and strong accruals, its debt coverage indicators also stood highly comfortable marked by Total Debt/GCA of 0.25 times and interest coverage of 39.47 times during FY21.

4. The company’s revenue profile is moderately diversified owing to its operations under different business divisions such as surface finishing (of which electroplating chemicals, paints & oil & lubricants are sub-divisions) engineering and shopping mall. Furthermore, electroplating chemical division has wide basket of products and the chemicals manufactured by the company finds its application in various industries such as automobiles, consumer durables, gems and jewellery, etc. Thus, GWIL benefits from the well-diversified product portfolio of chemical segment. Moreover, the company is also involved in the manufacturing of industrial paints, which is the second-largest contributor to the company’s revenue. The product profile in Paints include high performance industrial coatings (with applications in refineries, oil exploration, petrochemicals), Pipeline Coatings (duly approved by WRAS-UK and NSF –USA for application in drinking water pipelines, Irrigation water Intercity pipelines), Marine Coatings (having applications in ships for long life Anti-fouling coatings besides aerospace and defence coatings. The engineering division is involved in manufacturing and providing turnkey solution for electroplating plants, effluent treatment plants and other engineering products. Over 800 plants of varied types have been commissioned by division worldwide till now. Apart from the above, the company has shopping mall spread over 475,000 sq. ft. at Kandivali (Mumbai suburbs) with 247,000 sq.ft. of leasable area. Thus, the diversified revenue profile has helped the company to reduce its dependency as well as tide over any downturn in a particular business segment as was evident during FY21 (refers to the period April 1 to March 31) when income and profitability of shoppertainment segment had declined, the same was largely compensated by improved performance of its engineering division.

5. Last 10 years average ROE greater than 15%.

6. Debt to equity at 0.02 (less than 1 is good), Interest Coverage at 114 (greater than 3 is good), Current ratio at 3.31 (greater than 1.5 is good), FCF to CFO at 76.4%.

7. The company has a dividend yield of 0.72% (consistent dividend payer since 2010).

8. FII stake increased since September 2020 from 0.07% to 0.71% in March 2022.

9. Risk: -
a) In chemical segment, the company’s raw materials are various kinds of metals, which are used in powder form for plating/coating, which continue to remain highly volatile. On the other hand, the industrial paints have crude oil derivatives as majority of its raw materials whereby prices of raw materials are linked to crude oil price, which is again volatile in nature.

b) In chemical division, GWIL has been largely able to pass on increase in raw material prices in a timely manner on the back of its leadership position in the electroplating chemical segment. However, as pricing for supply of industrial paints are decided at the time of bidding, the profit margins of paints division remain exposed to volatility in the input prices. Moreover, being relatively small player in this division, the pricing power is also low.

c) As the company’s operations involve import/export of raw material and sales of its products, it involves transactions in foreign currencies which are done mostly in Yen, USD, and Euro. During FY21, the imports accounted for Rs.58.99 crore as against exports of Rs.60.57 crore. The company has policy of hedging majority of its imports; however, the receivables are normally kept open and hence are exposed to foreign exchange fluctuation.