Nasdaq to 6000, Again.
Princess Gwen here. Not all frogs are Princes, so a Princess needs to have a backup plan for her finances.
If we continue to assume that this market behaves exactly like it did in 2008, and there hasn't been any reason yet to think it won't, then there should be a move down now which tests the previous support level. In 2008 it actually overshot the first low, going slightly lower, so I would anticipate a test to reach 6,000 in the next few weeks. The Williams just dropped sharply, and it tends to be a leading indicator, so I think this current blast of enthusiasm is over.
From there it gets interesting. The rebound upward from the 2008 equivalent low was fairly dramatic, a gain that looked like the market was really, truly regaining bull status. I suspect we'll see something similar this time round.
With every positive rebound, I begin to understand how insidious this type of bear market is. The bulk of participants are still adamantly convinced that the market will preserve and enhance their wealth. There is a palpable sense that the market CAN'T go down much from here. The long time frame is the killer. Things broke down in October, but were no really obvious reasons for it yet. We're waiting for the other shoe to drop, and until then, we're stuck in this purgatory of price action.
If we continue to assume that this market behaves exactly like it did in 2008, and there hasn't been any reason yet to think it won't, then there should be a move down now which tests the previous support level. In 2008 it actually overshot the first low, going slightly lower, so I would anticipate a test to reach 6,000 in the next few weeks. The Williams just dropped sharply, and it tends to be a leading indicator, so I think this current blast of enthusiasm is over.
From there it gets interesting. The rebound upward from the 2008 equivalent low was fairly dramatic, a gain that looked like the market was really, truly regaining bull status. I suspect we'll see something similar this time round.
With every positive rebound, I begin to understand how insidious this type of bear market is. The bulk of participants are still adamantly convinced that the market will preserve and enhance their wealth. There is a palpable sense that the market CAN'T go down much from here. The long time frame is the killer. Things broke down in October, but were no really obvious reasons for it yet. We're waiting for the other shoe to drop, and until then, we're stuck in this purgatory of price action.
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