dchua1969
Giá lên

Money in your coffee :)

ICEUSA_EOD:KC1!   COFFEE FUTURES
In Singapore where i lived, there is more coffee             shops to satisfy the most sophisticated drinker! From the most expensive to the local delight, we have a wide variety. I used to drink 7-8 cups a day until I became a vegetarian and stopped drinking. What is the monthly chart telling us ?

1. A triple bottom - 1975, 1992 and 2001 all lands at price level of 44.05. This tells me that even if I had invested early during these time but failed to take profits at the peak of 334.15 at 1977, 321 at 1997 or 306 at 2011, I would be sitting at the current price of 127.55. In short, buy and hold strategy works but not for infinite             time, imo             .

2. Expanding the chart further, we can see that price has moved from lower low of 44.05 to current price of 127.05. However, the higher high seems to collapse southwards - 303.90 in 2009, 225.35 in 2014 and 175.65 in 2016. Thus, one can draw a symmetrical triangle and conclude that price can either move upwards as I believe so, first to 175.65 and then to 225.35. Alternatively, it could heads south towards 89.45 and then 44.05 zone.

3. Look at the 3 blue circle I have highlighted. It shows price action trying to breakout of the 618 FIB level in 2008, failed , retraced for 2 years. In 2010, it attempted to break out again and succeeded, bringing the price to the peak of 301 level. Then it collapsed terribly and in 2014, it managed to breakout once more, bringing the price to 225 level. Same story again, it collapsed and 2016, it wants to show the world it can do it again albeit for a while. How long ? For 4 months only and price stay depressed till now. Conclusion that I draw : the flush (selling) is getting lesser and lesser (look at the red candles pattern, it gets shorter and shorter) while the buying is getting more and more (evidenced by lower low).

4. Start a small position, accumulate more when it breaks out of the 618 level or the symmetrical triangle pattern . Mid to Long term - bullish
Bình luận: On the day chart, it is bullish, above 21EMA and bullish candles for the last 3 days.
buy small to test, watch the 618 FIB level at 125 price zone. There might be a retracement.

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