MCD Long; 150EMA Support - Risk:Reward Of 62:1
This trade setup is pretty simple and doesn't require any rocket science. McDonald's, or MCD, is a component of the DOW30. MCD has been in a trading range on the weekly chart for quite some time now. We are currently at the bottom of this range, providing an excellent opportunity to get long. I'm using covered calls in this name to get long the stock at as cheap a price as possible. The RSI show at label (A) is finding support in the oversold zone we have seen it bounce from before. In addition, we have moved off the 150EMA Weekly, which if you look at the green ellipse has previously held up since about 2007-2008 (not shown in this chart). There are two long possibilities here for me:
1) Buy MCD at 93.68 and Sell the Oct. 100 Call for $0.27 making your cost basis $93.41. With our stop on a close below $93.05 we are risking about $0.36 to make a maximum of $6.59. That's a risk reward of 18:1.
2) 1) Buy MCD at 93.68 and Sell the Oct. 97.5 Call for $0.57 making your cost basis $93.11. With our stop on a close below $93.05 we are risking about $0.07 to make a maximum of $4.39. That's a risk reward of 62:1.
(I traded #2)
The risk reward is assuming we could close out the position on the penny. This of course is not entirely true because we do not know how far below the market can close. It give you an idea however of just how well this trade is setup. You can tailor your stops to your liking. For example from this level, my stop is on a close below $93.05 or a touch of $92.35. This is because I never risk more than 2% on a single trade. I traded play number 2 because it brought my cost basis closer to the EMA reducing risk, while limiting profit. To compensate I doubled the size of my MCD position so the profit would match that of Trade Play #1, with my total risk being less than 2% still, and appropriate stops in play as mentioned. $97.50 is the closest and more likely target, with $102.00 being the top and more extended part of the range. So by using the $97.50 calls and doubling my size, my chances are better yet that I will achieve the same profits as Trading Play #1, simply because it only requires MCD to head towards $97.50 and not $102.00.
Good luck, and may the markets be ever in your favor!
1) Buy MCD at 93.68 and Sell the Oct. 100 Call for $0.27 making your cost basis $93.41. With our stop on a close below $93.05 we are risking about $0.36 to make a maximum of $6.59. That's a risk reward of 18:1.
2) 1) Buy MCD at 93.68 and Sell the Oct. 97.5 Call for $0.57 making your cost basis $93.11. With our stop on a close below $93.05 we are risking about $0.07 to make a maximum of $4.39. That's a risk reward of 62:1.
(I traded #2)
The risk reward is assuming we could close out the position on the penny. This of course is not entirely true because we do not know how far below the market can close. It give you an idea however of just how well this trade is setup. You can tailor your stops to your liking. For example from this level, my stop is on a close below $93.05 or a touch of $92.35. This is because I never risk more than 2% on a single trade. I traded play number 2 because it brought my cost basis closer to the EMA reducing risk, while limiting profit. To compensate I doubled the size of my MCD position so the profit would match that of Trade Play #1, with my total risk being less than 2% still, and appropriate stops in play as mentioned. $97.50 is the closest and more likely target, with $102.00 being the top and more extended part of the range. So by using the $97.50 calls and doubling my size, my chances are better yet that I will achieve the same profits as Trading Play #1, simply because it only requires MCD to head towards $97.50 and not $102.00.
Good luck, and may the markets be ever in your favor!
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