2 FX Shorts with excellent odds

4 thg 8, 2023

Starting with the pair which makes no sense at current levels, considering the most meager of rate differentials at +2.5%, were it not for the SNB's deranged policy of "supporting the Swiss Franc as an inflation fighting measure" (while Swiss inflation is barely holding at 2%!) and with the Swiss Franc already at nose-bleed levels.

CHFJYP; a 50 year SHORT in the making;

The main chart is the MXNJPY - SHORT, also the premier carry-trade - while equities are trying to cling to the remnants of an already burst bubble.
While the Bank of Mexico has increased the rate differential (versus the static Yen) two-fold, in short order, that rate differential remained the same since 03/2023 while this pair continued on it's upward trajectory an additional 16%, incidentally inline with the SP500's identical increase during the same period;


Both of these pairs are at multi-year technical confluences, both pressing against significant resistance and showing distinct patterns of reversal. SHORT & SHORT

7 thg 8, 2023

Ghi chú

As for a comparison of the CHFJPY to the EUR and EURJPY prospects;


Note:
Here is a somewhat dated yet, generally still potentially informative backdrop to the SNB's policy over time:
emeritus.er.ethz.ch/content/dam/ethz/special-interest/mtec/chair-of-entrepreneurial-risks-dam/documents/News feed/Swiss_Sovereign_Fund_Sornette_4Sept2015.pdf

10 thg 8, 2023

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Mexico's yearly inflation rate dropped for the sixth month to 4.78%, the lowest since March 2021 and the core rate also fell to the lowest since February 2022. The Bank of Mexico has no plans to alter it's elevated 11.25% lending rate in the near term.
MXNJPY;

There is an excellent SHORT Entry here!

15 thg 8, 2023

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MXNJPY

SHORT

17 thg 8, 2023

Ghi chú

24 thg 8, 2023

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If this H & S completes here, it is also likely to have long term implications!
tradingview.com/x/rhiTtIBp/'
Short Entry - upon a break down!

6 thg 9, 2023

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SHORT
These both - CHFJPY & MXNJPY - are rolling over, here.

6 thg 9, 2023

Ghi chú

Watch out for this, though.

11 thg 10, 2023

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MXNJPY - SHORT

An excellent second chance to go Short (or to double up) here, if not short, yet!

Here is the Big Picture view - Weekly;

24 thg 10, 2023

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MXNJPY

SHORT There is a significant Monthly reversal unfolding in this pair's PRZ!
Considering the near term prospects for a Peso rise (see related post), in conjunction with the technicalo picture here, it says a lot about the Yen's near term prospects, as well.