Christmas Sale in On! Will it be Bears or Bulls all the way from

20 thg 12, 2021

NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS 20-12-21

In this post, I talk about the analysis for the day and the trading range for tomorrow. The video discusses with the help of the charts how the indices as well as leading stocks performed during the day and their likely play tomorrow.

O 16824.25

H 16840.10

L 16410.20

C 16614.20

EOD -371 points / -2.18%

SGX Nifty 20-12-21 @ 1900h = +25

FII DII = -801 Crores

CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS using 5 Minutes Chart

Nifty opened with a significant gap down and from there it never looked back and kept drifting and fell 400 points further from the opening level.

It appeared that the leakage is unlikely to be stopped as there was hardly any buying taking place.

Finally, around 1300h, either the shorters chose to cover or the bulls stepped in and the index managed to crawl and stumble upwards and ended above 16600.

Nifty has thus breached all important levels on the way down and made lower highs and lower lows.

NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS

Top 5 Lifters contributed = 10

Top 5 Draggers contributed = 160

Net = -150

BANK NIFTY WEIGHT LIFTERS & DRAGGERS

Top 3 Lifters contributed = 00

Top 3 Draggers contributed = 778

Net = -778

POSITIVES

I am not sure why Cipla and Dr Reddy’s bounced up - if the up move was on account of Omicron, it is not good in the overall interest of the markets.

The only other consolation was that 16400 on Nifty and 34000 on Bank Nifty were not breached.


NEGATIVES

There is no dearth of negatives today so I better restrict the same as follows:

For Nifty – Reliance and HDFC twins were the pain points.

For Bank Nifty - HDFC Bank, SBIN, and ICICI Bank were the pain points.


TRADING RANGE FOR 21 DEC 21

I did not expect this kind of paper support levels on the charts and I am not sure whether I will be able to draw any lines tomorrow as well.

So let us wait and watch how this plays out.

INSIGHTS / OBSERVATIONS

Bank Nifty has clearly underperformed to Nifty as it is down more than 3% on EOD basis. This is a significant fall and was responsible for the turmoil in the markets today as well.

On an EOD basis, Bank Nifty is down 1178 points of which 778 have been contributed by HDFC Bank, SBIN, and ICICI Bank. This itself shows what would have been the intensity of the selling pressure.

With today’s fall, the much awaited Santa Claus rally has turned into a Christmas Sale on a Red Monday! We have been pushed back by a few months by the price action in the last 2-3 sessions in particular.

The India Vix is significantly high and the moves remind me of the Mar 2020 type of price action where the indices used simply drift at market open.

And here is my latest tweet on the Big Daddy of the Moving Averages:





What do you feel about this?

Here is the video link –


Thank you, and Happy Money Making!

Umesh
20-12-21

NOTE --

This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title, as well as its contents, can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.


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