HDFC twins, KOTAK BANK throw their weight in and end the expiry

29 thg 7, 2021

NIFTY 50 EOD ANALYSIS -29-07-21

IN SUMMARY
Open / High / Low / Close
15762.7 / 15817.35 / 15737.8 / 15778.45 [+69.05 / +0.44%]
Trading Range Low to High: 80 points
Likely Max Realistic Opportunity @ 50%: 40 points
India VIX: 12.95 / -5.41%
FII DII activities: +1190 Crores

CHART BASED CONCLUSIONS

Nifty was made to end the expiry below 15800. A psycho victory for the bears and a sweet victory for the 15800 and above Call Writers.

The range for yesterday was 180 points and today it was only 80 points. The expiry fireworks took place on Wednesday and today was a painstaking and option premium decaying expiry.

Once again, Nifty ended around the opening price and it also ended the series on an indecisive note with a Doji candle on the monthly charts.

We have only made a higher high and higher low, but we are still not yet out of the haunting zone of 15835-50.



TOP 3 LOSERS
MARUTI - The car made a nosedive after losing support of the 50 as well as 200 DMA and halted at the FIB level of 6936-50. There may be some more weakness as has been experienced by almost all the scrips that declared its results this season.If that happens, it may head towards 6800 from where the earlier bounce was made in a very smart manner.
ITC - Breached the 50 DMA and is now hoping to get support from 20 DMA and if the sentiment is bad, it may retest 200 DMA around 200. A scrip that is extremely range bound and possibly making the option writers happy.
BAJAJ AUTO - After breaching its 50 DMA around 4100, it has been consistently falling and is now within a striking distance of its 200 DMA around 3675. So tomorrow’s price action is likely to decide if it is taking support or losing it.
TOP 3 GAINERS
HINDALCO - What a roaring move and what a convincing manner to break the earlier ATH which could have acted as a resistance. The scrip even outpaced TATA STEEL and placed it on the second spot. We have to see how far can this rocket go!
TATA STEEL - It is good to see Metals becoming a rocket! Yet another ATH and it is heading higher.
BAJAJ FINSERV - While the auto sibling has been consistently losing, this one has been consistently rising. Making ATH close regularly and that is how it should be.

POSITIVES
Nifty ending above 15760-770 resistance line is a good thing.

Apart from the Metals family, SBIN, RELIANCE and INFOSYS helped Nifty remain at higher levels amidst expiry sell off that is customary in the last hour.

DIIs bought in excess of 2000 Crores to support the market which indicates that the short term up side is seen at 2-3%.

NEGATIVES

Yet another day when Nifty failed to hold on to the 15800+ levels and closed well below 15800. Such closes make it harder for the bulls to bounce back.

FMCG majors, HDFC twins, KOTAK and AXIS BANK dragged the indices and when HDFC twins are not on your side, this is what happens.

HDFC BANK barely managed to close above the earlier close, but is finding it hard to cross the 200 DMA which has been broken. So it looks like as if it is waiting for help from its sibling HDFC whose results are due on 02 Aug or from the other peers many of whom are themselves struggling.

TRADING RANGE FOR 30-07-21

Nifty support for now is at 15700-750. And resistances every few points. No point mentioning those again and again.

BANKNIFTY support range 34200-400 and resistance 34800-35000. Unless there is a break out or down, the range-bound behaviour is likely to continue.


INSIGHT / OBSERVATIONS

Private banks other than ICICI BANK would need some kind of trigger to lift them from the levels where they are - actually, these make a good investment opportunity.

FIIs keep selling relentlessly and DIIs keep buying. This is quite interesting as the DIIs are betting on India and FIIs seem to be having some other plans.

Let us see where Nifty opens the account in Aug series and whether the FIIs become Net buyers from tomorrow.

Thank you, and Happy Money Making!

Umesh
29-07-2021.

P.S. If you choose to comment on the above, please do so with your analytical view rather than merely passing a comment. Your presentation of the view held by you would help other readers as well.

NOTE --

This write-up is not a prediction mechanism for the movement of Indices in the Indian markets as the markets are unpredictable in nature. I may refer to many data points in the article but I do not base my view on any of these standalone. In fact, I prefer to react to the price moves than predict the price moves. I also do not review Open Interest. Whatever data points I am using, are all stated in the article. The article title as well as its contents can at best be stated as --- This Is How I Read Nifty. I hope I have been able to set the expectations right.