20 Sep ’23 Post Mortem on Nifty - Finally a reversal day
Nifty Analysis
Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr TF, I will be quite happy if this turns out to be the new top formation. Since the 20100 level was not taken out today, I was not able to take new short positions. We have a holiday tomorrow, but when we resume on Wednesday — I would really prefer if 20070 is taken out, till then I would prefer to stay neutral.”
We opened gap-down and well below 20070 which prompted me to go short. The 2nd 5mts candle showed some strength, but that faded away in the next 3 to 4 candles. Firstly I am not quite sure if the change in sentiment was technical or fundamental in nature. There was news about Canada rescheduling the FTA deal, Travel restriction to India, Expelling the Diplomat, NSA flying to London.
Before today most analysts were bullish in India and almost 95% of them did not have a reversal call. Now that Nifty50 has broken some levels - I assume few of them would have changed the plates.
We just fell 1.15% - it is not a big deal. Ideally we should have fallen more than 2%. Secondly the follow through and avalanche effect was missing - meaning the participants have not panicked yet. Our VIX is still 11.12% - up just 2.7%.
On the 1hr TF - the encircled region is the gap formed between 8th and 11th Sep 2023. And today’s prices just stopped right at the top level i.e 19895. For further down move we need that gap to be taken out on the downside just like how it was taken out on the upside. Only then the bears can bring the panic in the markets. Which translates into a 70pts+ gap down opening tomorrow.
My stance has been changed from neutral to bearish with the first target 19815 and then 19747. If Nifty50 is unable to fall below 19895 in the morning session - I will have to change by stance back to neutral.
Recap from yesterday: “On the 1hr TF, I will be quite happy if this turns out to be the new top formation. Since the 20100 level was not taken out today, I was not able to take new short positions. We have a holiday tomorrow, but when we resume on Wednesday — I would really prefer if 20070 is taken out, till then I would prefer to stay neutral.”
We opened gap-down and well below 20070 which prompted me to go short. The 2nd 5mts candle showed some strength, but that faded away in the next 3 to 4 candles. Firstly I am not quite sure if the change in sentiment was technical or fundamental in nature. There was news about Canada rescheduling the FTA deal, Travel restriction to India, Expelling the Diplomat, NSA flying to London.
Before today most analysts were bullish in India and almost 95% of them did not have a reversal call. Now that Nifty50 has broken some levels - I assume few of them would have changed the plates.
We just fell 1.15% - it is not a big deal. Ideally we should have fallen more than 2%. Secondly the follow through and avalanche effect was missing - meaning the participants have not panicked yet. Our VIX is still 11.12% - up just 2.7%.
On the 1hr TF - the encircled region is the gap formed between 8th and 11th Sep 2023. And today’s prices just stopped right at the top level i.e 19895. For further down move we need that gap to be taken out on the downside just like how it was taken out on the upside. Only then the bears can bring the panic in the markets. Which translates into a 70pts+ gap down opening tomorrow.
My stance has been changed from neutral to bearish with the first target 19815 and then 19747. If Nifty50 is unable to fall below 19895 in the morning session - I will have to change by stance back to neutral.
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